vgbe energy journal 10 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

Requirements for capacity
expansion and fuel supply for a
future-proof, secure and climatefriendly
electricity supply in
Germany
Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Stefan Ulreich and Tobias Zimmermann
Abstract
Anforderungen an Kapazitätsausbau
und Brennstoffversorgung für eine
zukunftsfeste, sichere und
klimagerechte Stromversorgung
in Deutschland
Das Stromsystem in Deutschland steht zwei
Herausforderungen gegenüber: eine deutliche
Steigerung der Nachfrage nach Strom, der zunehmend
für Wärme/Kälte und in der Mobilität
eingesetzt wird – und einen wachsenden
Anteil stark wetterabhängiger Stromerzeugung,
was zu einem komplexeren Abgleich zwischen
Stromerzeugung und -verbrauch führt.
Als Folge wird der Bedarf nach steuerbarer
Autors
Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
Assistant professsor at
RWTH Aachen
Aachen, Germany
Prof. Dr. Stefan Ulreich
Hochschule Biberach
Biberach, Germany
Dr. Tobias Zimmermann
RWE Supply & Trading
Head Strategic Market Analysis
Essen, Germany
English version of the
original German article,
published in the vgbe energy
journal 8 (2022), pp. 30 to 45.
Leistung zumindest nicht sinken und stillzulegende
Kraftwerkskapazität muss durch neue
steuerbare Leistung ersetzt werden. Benötigt
wird sie für kurzfristige Schwankungen und
für saisonal einsetzbare Leistung, da z.B. die
Stromnachfrage für Heizungen die bisherige
Saisonalität verstärken wird. Neben anderen
Lösungen wie Lastfolge und Stromspeicher,
bieten sich zunehmend wasserstoffbefeuerte
Gaskraftwerke als Lösung an – in Kombination
mit der Nutzung von Gasspeichern und der
internationalen Infrastruktur zum Import
flüssiger oder gasförmiger Energieträger. l
Introduction
In traditional electricity systems, which prevail
in many countries in Europe, parts of
the USA and also in growth markets such as
China or India, thermal power plants (including
nuclear energy) dominate the generation
mix. Thermal power plants have the
advantage of providing energy as well as
secured output, i.e. capacity, at the same
time. For this, ‘only’ the technical availability
of the plants must be high and the fuel or
energy source used in the power plant must
be available reliably and in sufficient quantities
at all times.
The temporal structure of the demand curve
determines the optimal mix between more
base-load oriented power plants (high
CAPEX 1 , low SRMC 2 ) and peak-load power
plants (low CAPEX, high SRMC). There is an
as yet unresolved debate in science and practice
as to whether an energy-only market can
refinance sufficient power plant capacities or
whether additional capacity mechanisms are
necessary. Without being able or willing to
answer this question here in principle, it can
at least be stated that additional, capacityrelated
revenues in traditional power systems
need only be moderate. 3
In order to achieve the climate targets that
Germany and Europe have set themselves, it
is already clear that the burning of fossil fuels
will have to be greatly reduced in the
near future and that a large part of electricity
production will therefore have to be
based on renewable sources. These renewable
sources are – as of today – for the most
part not dispatchable and therefore provide
very cheap electrical energy but significantly
less or no secure power.
The aim of this article is to examine in general
– but also specifically for the situation in
Germany – whether there is a contradiction
between climate neutrality and security of
supply, and if so, how this can be resolved.
Even if much is still uncertain – and at best
should also be optimised and controlled via
market prices – it is already possible to make
reliable statements about which technologies
will be available and necessary in the
next few years based on today’s status. In addition
to fundamental considerations on
supply security during and after the conversion
of the electricity and energy system into
a CO 2 free system, we want to analyse how
the current gas supply crisis is to be classified
and what changes may result from it.
1 Current situation with
demand and its coverage
– crises and extraordinary
effect shape the
development since 2019
Energy consumption in Germany was
strongly influenced by the effects of the Co-
1
CAPEX = Capital Expenditures (Capital Expenditures)
2
SRMC = Short-Run Marginal Cost: short-term
marginal costs
3
See also example calculation in the section on
the Future Picture
74 | vgbe energy journal