vgbe energy journal 10 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

Future-proof, secure and climate-friendly electricity supply in Germany
Running and storage water
Biomass
Solar energy
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Other energy
Pumped storage
Mineral oil
Natural gas
Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear energy
Net capacity of plants
on the electricity
market in MW at the
start of 2022*
219,536
4,878
9,492
59,297
7,774
56,080
5,927
2,907 9,778
27,883
14,746
16,718
4,056
Secured capacity in
MW
Beginning 2022**
80,431
1,366 311
0 5,695 561
2,704 7,822
3,556
25,931
13,419
15,213 3,853
Secured capacity is
reduced to < 75,000 MW
by 2025 due to the
nuclear phase-out and
the regulations under the
Coal Phase-out Act.
The transmission system
operators assume a peak
load of 82,600 MW and
81,100 MW for 2021 and
2022, taking into account
the load reduction
potentials.
* Net capacity of electricity generation plants on the electricity market according to the power plant list of the Federal Network Agency,
as of 31.05.2022 (renewable energy plants recorded as of 31.12.2021). In addition, the Federal Network Agency has recorded 12,489 MW
plants outside the electricity market. These include plants on standby and grid reserve power plants.
** Calculated using the average failure rates for conventional power plants and non-availability rates for renewable energy plants.
According to the transmission system operators and ENTSO-E, these are 5 % for nuclear energy, 9 % for lignite and hard coal,
7 % for natural gas, 72 % for run-of-river, 40 % for biomass, 20 % for pumped storage, 99 % for wind onshore, 96 % for offshore wind and
100 % for photovoltaics.
Fig. 9. Derivation of the secured capacity from the net capacity of the power generation plants
in Germany.
Installed capacity (in MW)
Secured capacity (in %)
4,056
95 %
Nuclear power
18,898* 19,045**
91 % 91 %
Lignite
Hard coal
32,085***
93 %
Natural gas
Hydropower
Secured capacity or power credit is the percentage of a power plant's nominal capacity that, statistically speaking,
is reliably available at the time of the annual peak load.
* of which 1,886 MW in security reserve and 294 MW
** of which 4,299 outside the electricity market (grid reserve) and 1,263 MW
capacity reserve)
56,080
4,878
28 % 1 %
Wind onshore
wind offshore
59,297
Photovoltaics
Biomass
Hydro pumped
storage
*** of which 4,202 MW outside the electricity market provisionally
decommissioned (1,382 MW grid reserve and 1,557 MW
provisionally decommissioned plants)
Sources: Federal Network Agency, power plant list as of 31.05.2022 (EEG plants evaluated as of 31.12.2021); TSOs (outage rates for conventional power plants
or non-availability rates for renewable energies according to the report of the German transmission system operators on the power balance
2017 - 2021, 23 January 2019 as well as the report of the German transmission system operators on the power balance 2018 - 2022, as of 18.02.2020),
ENTSO-E (according to ENTSO-E, non-availabilities for wind vary between 96 and 98 %).
Fig. 10. Installed and secured capacity (31.05.2022).
in gigawatts
100
93,5*
7,774
Nuclear phase-out: - 4.1 GW
Safety readiness: - 1.8 GW
Coal phase-out**: - 5.4 GW
New build: + 4.0 GW
9,492 9,778
4 % 0 % 60 % 80 %
86,2
2022 2025
* Net installed capacity including power plants outside the electricity market of 12.5 GW
** Statutory closures (KVBG): Lignite phase-out path: 1,652 MW; third, fourth and fifth round tender: 3,681 MW
Source: Federal Network Agency, power plant list, as of 31.05.2022
Highest
grid load
2021
cording to KVBG. This would be almost a
halving compared to the status on 31 May
2022.
In the case of a complete coal phase-out
brought forward to 2030, only 41.7 GW of
the currently installed fossil-fired power
plant capacity – including 32.1 GW based on
natural gas – would remain (4.7 GW petroleum
products and 4.9 GW other non-renewable
energies), provided that no closures
in the area of these plants also take
place by then. Other capacities not based on
renewable energies are the pumped storage
power plants. Their total capacity as of 31
May 2022, including plants installed abroad
but feeding directly into the German grid, is
estimated at 9.8 GW. This would be almost
half the installed conventional capacity of
93.5 GW as of 31 May 2022.
The power plant fleet is also
changing in other European
countries
The dispatchable capacity that is currently
still abundantly available in some of our
neighbouring states will decrease. It is to be
expected that the capacity of coal-fired power
plants will be significantly lower than today
not only in Germany, but also in a number
of other states by 2030. This applies to
Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary,
Romania, Greece, the Netherlands, Italy,
Great Britain, Ireland, France, Spain,
Finland and Denmark. In these countries –
with the exception of Poland – it has been
decided to end coal-fired power generation
by 2030 (F i g u r e 1 2 ). Depending on the
various scenarios modelled, the International
Energy Agency arrives at results that confirm
this trend (Ta b l e 2 ). For the EU-27 as
a whole – including Germany – a reduction
in coal-fired power plant capacity to 43.4 GW
by 2030 is assumed in the Stated Policy Scenario
(SPS) and to 23.7 GW in the Announced
Pledges (APS) and Sustainable
Development (SDS) scenarios. This would
be a reduction of between 92.5 and
112.2 GW compared to 2020. In addition,
there is a reduction in the capacity of nuclear
power plants, which is estimated at
16.5 GW (SPS) and 10.9 GW (GSP and SDS)
for the EU-27 by 2030 compared to 2020,
despite the expected capacity increase for
Finland and the unchanged capacity in the
Czech Republic. 21 Of this, 8.1 GW is attributable
to Germany. Part of this expected capacity
reduction in coal and nuclear energy
will be compensated by a gross increase in
natural gas-fired CHP plants in other European
countries by 2030.
In order to relieve the tense situation on the
energy markets, the Bundestag and the Bundesrat
adopted a bill on 7 and 8 July 2022,
respectively, to make replacement power
plants available and to reduce gas consumption
in the electricity sector. The aim of the
Fig. 11. Development of conventional power generation capacities in Germany until 2025
in gigawatts.
21
International Energy Agency (2021)
80 | vgbe energy journal 10 · 2022