vgbe energy journal 10 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

Future-proof, secure and climate-friendly electricity supply in Germany
and a generator. In a project report submitted
to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs
and Energy in April 2021, the installed
capacity that can be economically tapped in
Germany as a result is assumed to be in
the order of 4.5 GW. The economically exploitable
load reduction potential of industry
in Germany that exceeds the available
potential (voluntary load shedding by industry
in return for remuneration – DSM) is
extrapolated in the same study to 15.6 GW
for 2030. With regard to the development of
large-scale battery storage, this project report
assumes a capacity increase for Germany
from 0.6 GW in 2021 to 2 GW in
2030. 24
3 Current situation with fuel
supply
The consideration of supply security in the
above section focuses (as is traditionally the
case) on the availability of electrical power
in times of peak load or peak residual load.
Due to the complex interaction of fluctuating
renewable feed-in and electricity storage,
at least probabilistic methods and simulation
techniques are used to determine the
demand for secured thermal power. However,
this does not change the aforementioned
focus on electrical power.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the
focus has shifted to the sufficient supply (of
power plants) with fuels. This is because the
implicitly assumed guaranteed supply of fuels
to the power plants means precisely the
advantage of these plants over electricity
storage facilities, for example. In Texas, icing
of the gas infrastructure had led to problems
with the power supply in the cold snap
in March 2021. Here, too (for other reasons,
of course), the gas-fired power plants could
not be supplied with fuel, so that the security
of electricity supply was jeopardised despite
sufficient secured electrical power at
the time. Another example is the supply to
the hard coal-fired power plants along the
Rhine. In the summer of 2022, drought and
high temperatures caused the water level to
drop sharply. As a result, the supply of power
plants, especially in Hesse and Baden-
Württemberg, from the import ports of Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Antwerp
(ARA) was
restricted. Due to the low water levels, the
inland vessels could no longer be loaded according
to their full capacity.
These examples illustrate the advantage of
domestic energy sources – this applies in
particular to renewables and lignite, which
are not subject to comparable impairments.
Furthermore, the storability of fuels to cover
seasonal demand is essential. This applies,
for example, to hard coal or natural gas.
The fuel supply of power plants with lignite
is particularly favourable from the point of
24
r2b energy consulting/Consentec/Fraunhofer
ISI/TEP Energy (2021)
view of security of supply. Between the
years 2000 and 2020, up to 183 million
tonnes per year were extracted from the
opencast mines existing in Germany and
mainly converted into electricity. In 2021,
the production volume realised in the three
coalfields Rhineland, Lusatia and Central
Germany amounted to 126.3 million tonnes
corresponding to a calorific value of 39.3
million tonnes of hard coal units. Of this,
113.6 million tonnes, or about 90 %, were
used to generate electricity and heat in power
plants. Most of the power plants are located
in the immediate vicinity of the opencast
mines. They are supplied with raw lignite
via conveyor belts or by train. For the
most part, mining, power generation plants
and the associated infrastructure are all
bundled in one company. This is particularly
true of the Rhenish mining area. In principle,
the opencast mines are the storage facilities
that are accessed by means of extraction
to supply the power plants. To bridge
short-term fluctuations between the extraction
of lignite and the demand of the power
plants, reserves are kept in bunkers. This
system has always proven to be resilient,
even during periods of cold or heat. Instead
of drawing water from surface waters, lignite-fired
power plants can use mine water
that has been lifted and treated for cooling
purposes. This means that there is no need
to restrict the operation of the plants even
during periods of high heat and drought.
Nuclear energy is 100 % dependent on fuel.
However, in view of the fuel reserves with a
range of several years, nuclear energy can be
accorded the same importance as domestic
energy sources from the point of view of security
of supply. Accordingly, nuclear energy
is regularly counted as domestic energy in
international statistics, even when supplied
with fuel rods from abroad.
For hard coal, Germany has been 100 % dependent
on imports since the last mines
closed at the end of 2018. In 2021, 41.1 million
tonnes of hard coal had been imported
into Germany. Of this, 25.8 million tonnes
were steam coals, which are mainly used to
generate electricity. With a share of 70.5 %,
the Russian Federation was the most important
supplier of steam coal for Germany in
2021. The EU sanctions package of 8 April
2022 provides for an import ban on Russian
coal. According to this, the conclusion of
new coal import contracts is prohibited. All
existing contracts with Russian suppliers
had to be terminated within four months of
the regulations coming into force. This
meant that the transitional period for the
embargo to take effect on Russian coal ended
on 10 August 2022. Despite this situation,
no supply problems have arisen for hard coal
to supply the power plants. The world market
is sufficiently liquid. Supplies from Russia
can be replaced from countries such as
Colombia, the USA and South Africa in particular.
However, the generally tense situation
on the international energy procurement
markets has led to historic highs in the
prices of hard coal as well. Another factor
contributing to security of supply is that the
operators of hard-coal-fired power plants
usually keep fuel stocks for several weeks.
To avoid restrictions on the inland transport
of hard coal, the federal government has issued
an ordinance aimed at prioritising energy
transports over other supplies.
While lignite accounted for around 90 % of
total consumption in Germany in 2021 and
hard coal for almost half, the share of natural
gas used to generate electricity was 13 %.
Domestic production of natural gas contributed
only 5 % to the total in 2021. 95 % had
to be provided by imports. The vast majority
of this – more than 95 % – is pipeline gas.
The most important suppliers are Russia,
Norway and the Netherlands. Russia’s share
in meeting Germany’s demand had increased
from about one third in 2011 to a
good half in 2021. In the past, Germany has
relied on the supply of pipeline gas, which is
cheaper than LNG. The construction of LNG
import terminals had not presented itself as
an economic alternative. Security of supply
was considered to be given – despite the lack
of diversification of supply sources.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops
on 24 February 2022 has completely
changed the situation. Efforts are now focused
on limiting the share of Russian supplies
to no more than 10 % by 2024 on the
one hand, and on creating the infrastructure
for the direct import of LNG to Germany on
the other. In addition, legal regulations have
now been put in place to ensure that specific
requirements for the filling levels of existing
gas storage facilities are adhered to.
Four floating liquefied natural gas terminals
(FSRU) have been leased within the first
half of 2022. Two of the regasification vessels
are to be available in Brunsbüttel and
Wilhelmshaven before the end of 2022 and
will be ready for operation at the turn of the
year 2022/2023. It is planned that up to 5
billion m 3 /year can then be fed into the gas
grid in Wilhelmshaven. The FSRU in Brunsbüttel
is also expected to have a regasification
capacity of 5 billion m 3 per year. Due to
restrictions in the gas grid, the maximum
value is not expected until winter 2023. The
FSRU vessels for the sites in Stade and Lubmin
are expected to be available from May
2023. The operational readiness of both
sites could be established by the end of
2023. In Lubmin, another and thus a total of
five LNG terminals are to be built in Germany
by the end of 2022, realised by a private
consortium. As early as December 2022, the
terminal should be able to feed 4.5 billion
m 3 into the German long-distance gas pipeline
network. In the long term, diversification
through further pipeline connections
between supplier countries and Germany is
also envisaged. Assuming that the FSRUs in
Stade and Lubmin also have a capacity of
5 billion m 3 , this gives a total capacity of
82 | vgbe energy journal 10 · 2022