vgbe energy journal 10 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

Future-proof, secure and climate-friendly electricity supply in Germany
rona pandemic in 2020 and 2021. In particular,
for 2020 as a whole, the statistics show a
decrease in primary energy consumption, by
7.1 % compared to 2019. This trend was seen
for almost all energy sources and sectors; in
the transport sector and for oil products, the
Corona effects were particularly felt due to
reduced commuting and travel. Industry
also demanded less energy. The energy consumption
of private households stagnated.
Gross electricity consumption decreased by
3.5 % from 575 TWh to 555 TWh, mainly due
to Corona-related losses in industrial production.
4 It is also thanks to Corona-related
declines in demand that Germany was able
to achieve its climate targets for 2020.
Greenhouse gas emissions fell by 4.8 % compared
to 2019 to 729 million tonnes of CO 2
equivalents. This means that greenhouse gas
emissions in 2020 were 41.3 % below the
comparable 1990 level of 1,242 million t CO 2
equivalents. 5
Currently available statistics for 2021 show
a clear recovery in energy consumption.
Similar to the collapse caused by Corona,
the recovery is taking place across all energy
sources and sectors. For 2021 as a whole,
gross electricity consumption increased by
2.4 % to 569 TWh. The demand level before
the Corona crisis of 575 TWh in 2019 was
thus almost reached again in 2021. Unfortunately,
a comparable trend also applies to
greenhouse gas emissions, which increased
by 4.5 % compared to 2020 to 762 million t
CO 2 equivalents, but still remained 4.8 % below
the 2019 level (800 million t CO 2 equivalents).
Natural gas consumption in 2021 increased
by as much as 4.9 % and, at 3,288 PJ (112.2
million tce), exceeded the 2019 level by
2.3 %. Natural gas thus achieved a slightly
higher share of 26.8 % in total primary energy
consumption (2020: 26.4 %). 6 The
higher gas consumption was due to cool and
often windless weather in the first half of
2021: as a result, gas was needed more for
both heating and electricity generation.
With the outbreak of the Ukraine war and
actual and/or threatened supply stops from
Russia, natural gas is currently receiving
special attention and will continue to do so
for the next few years. Compared to ‘normal’
times, Russia has currently greatly reduced
its deliveries. For example, the share of supplies
from Russia has dropped to 35 % (January
2022) to 26 % (June 2022), and in July
and early August 2022 had contributed only
10 % to covering natural gas consumption
in Germany. 7 The latter figure is also ex-
4
Working Group on Energy Balances, data as of
April 2022
5
Federal Environment Agency, press release of
15 March 2022
6
Working Group on Energy Balances, Energy
Consumption in Germany in 2021
7
BDEW, Natural gas data current, as of
15.8.2022
DK/UK/Other
22 %
Netherlands
2011 2021
6 %
27 %
Norway
13 %
Domesticproduction
Russia
32 %
Source: H.-W. Schiffer (data basis: BAFA, Bruegel and own estimate)
plained by the temporary complete stop of
deliveries via Nord Stream 1 due to the revision.
8
Natural gas consumption in Germany decreased
by 14.7 % in the first half of 2022
compared to the corresponding period of
the previous year to 497 billion kWh. The
reasons include the significantly milder
weather compared to spring 2021, the
sharply increased price level and the noticeably
weakened economic growth. These factors
have led to a 3.5 % reduction in total
energy consumption in the 1st half of 2022
compared to the first six months of 2021.
The contribution of renewable energy to primary
energy consumption increased by
4.7 % in H1 2022. With exceptionally good
wind conditions, especially in February,
electricity generation from wind increased
by 18 % in H1 2022. Solar energy increased
by 20 %. Electricity generation from natural
gas has already been declining since mid-
2021. In the first half of 2022, around 12 %
less electricity was generated in gas-fired
power plants than in the corresponding period
of the previous year. 9
Admittedly, there have also been problems
with the fuel supply for individual energy
carriers and transport routes in the past. For
example, in the winter of 2021/22 – as in the
summer of 2022 – low water levels on the
Rhine did not allow the coal freighters to be
fully loaded. However, the coal storage facilities
at the power plants could be used
during this time. Such temporary failures or
bottlenecks in the supply of fossil fuels can
usually be bridged without major problems
for supply security due to the storage capacity
that exists in all fossil primary energy
sources.
A complete or almost complete failure of
Russia as a natural gas supplier cannot be
Netherlands
8 %
30 %
Norway
Domestic production
5 %
LNG 5 %
Fig. 1. Comparison of natural gas volumes for supply in Germany by origin 2011 and 2021.
8
Germany currently only imports natural gas by
pipelines, since there are no LNG hubs in Germany
so far.
9
BDEW, press release dated 16.8.2022 and
AGEB, press release dated 2.8.2022
Russia
52 %
compared in dimension and severity with
previous supply crises. Firstly, Germany is
dependent on Russian natural gas to a very
large extent. The share of Russian imports in
Germany’s natural gas consumption was a
good 50 % before the Ukraine war (F i g -
ure 1). 10 Secondly, Russian natural gas deliveries
to Germany are almost exclusively
pipeline-bound. This means that the import
infrastructure used for this cannot be used
by other potential gas suppliers. Thirdly,
‘cheap’ natural gas has a high importance in
Germany in providing space heating and as
an important energy source or chemical raw
material for German industry.
In the area of electricity generation, problems
with the supply of gas can currently
be best compensated for as long as sufficient
coal or nuclear power plants can stand
in. In the medium term, however, these
power plant capacities will at best be available
as a reserve for a few hours a year for
reasons of climate protection or other political
reasons.
In the short term, therefore, the federal government
must solve the problems with gas
supply, primarily with regard to buildings
and industry, but in the medium term it will
have to ensure that natural gas is also available
to the electricity sector again. Length
and size of this bridge depends on progress
in energy efficiency, the expansion of renewables
and the development of the hydrogen
economy.
The wholesale market price for electricity
has increased significantly in recent months
– even before the war between Russia and
Ukraine. While the annual average price for
base deliveries on EPEX SPOT was €37.67/
MWh in 2019 (2020: € 30.47/MWh), it was
already € 96.85/MWh in 2021. The main
driver for this was an increase in CO 2 prices
from 24.71 €/t in the annual average in
2020 to 53.68 €/t in the annual average in
10
BDEW, Natural gas data current, as of
15.8.2022
vgbe energy journal 10 · 2022 | 75