Sanctioning Apartheid - KORA

Sandions mrd Financing South Africa's Fm-gtr Trade 229
billion in non-bank credits at the end of 1986 in Table 6 is
sthated by subtracting horn the total debt of $22593 billion the
sum of the debt to the foreign banks, the bond holders and the
IMF. Since all ~ T in S the various data accumhte in this
difference of $2.881 billion, it is not highly accurate.
This non-bank d t appears to rise in Table 6 from $2.25
billion at the end of 1985 to $2.88 billion at the end of 19&6, with
the QECD rnemberanmtty-guaranteed-portion fig from $1.08
billion to $1.36 bilpion Thus there appears to be an increase of
both the total and the insured portion between the end of 1985
and 1986. However, these inaeases are attributable to currency
exchange rate changes as shown below.
Figure 1 shows the insured portion rising rapidly after the
debt standstill in late 1985, By converting this debt into varlaus
currencies and setbing the vertical currency scales on the right
hand side of the figure to coincide at the mid-1985 data point,
f i p 1 shows that if aU the guaranteed debt were in Deutsche
MarksI there would have been a general decline in the amount
of this guaranteed Deutsche Mark debt. Assuming a fixed price
for goods in each currency, this means a decrease in the physical
amount of goods exported to South Africa with OECD guaranteed
financing. If the expbrls were in pounds or yen, the amount
mdates and $ only very slightly higher in mid-1987 than in
mid-1 985.
The amount of German exports financed by non-bank
~tutions is plotted in Deutsche Marks at the bottom of figure
1. They amount to about 20% of the tatal OECD member country
guaranteed non-bank aedits, assuming that the German data
refer mostly to guaranteed &ts. The German credits remain
relatively constant throughout the time period when e x p d
in Deukhe Marks' but they would show a spurious increase
since 3985 if they were expressed in dollars.
Estimates of the amount of nan-bank credits and guarantees
in all the various cummaes must be made before we mn see if
the amount of goods delivered has increased or decreased over
time. Table 8 gives our estimates with an explanation in the
notes to the table. The UK portion of the non-bank d i s is
roughly &mated at $250 million at the end of 1986, while the