Sanctioning Apartheid - KORA

suffering from drought, economic contraction, severe foreign
exchange shortages, and rapidly rising levels of unemployment,
Similarly, with the far higher international profile cunently
being given to the economic problems of Mozambiie, the
rehabilitation of ib bansport system and the manner in which
the donor community has publicly committed itself to supporting
these projects makes it more difficult for the South Africans
dmnatically to disrupt espdly the Beira Corridor and reverse
SADCC successes in rechannelling overseas trade away from South
Africa. To do so would be likely to in- pressure for
Westam action to be taken against South Africa, for instance by
tighbmhg the US sanctions legislation and by Congress pressing
harder for the President to encourage o k 0- nations to
impose similar sanctions.16 It would also help to place the
sanctions debate high on the international agenda once more.
The likely course of events over the short term, therefore,
would appear to be for Zimbabwe's process of mnomic disengagement
and delinking from South Africa to continue and thus
for major aspects of its dependence on its southern neighbor to
continue to be reduced. However on the pulitical and rnllitary
fronts, there are few if any grounds for believing that South
Africa's mostly covert adions against Zimbabwe will either halt
or be scaled down Indeed, to the extent that Zimbabwe
continues to make gains on the trade, transport, and investment
fronts-and in the prows strengthens its economic independence
from South Afriwits threat to South Africa is likely to intenslfy.
This in ium will increase the likdhd of action by South Africa
on the dtary/political front.
Contradictions
Perhaps a final word should be added about contradictions.
Ln practice, because events in southem Africa have evolved in a
far less clear-cut mmer than the analysis presented here would
suggest, contradictions are just as Uely to continue to arise in
the future. These can arise because some policies are illogical and
inconsistent-perhaps because communication between different
government departments is not as efficient and open as it would