Powering Europe - European Wind Energy Association

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fiGURE 2: sUMMaRy of RElEVant stUDiEs anD thEiR EstiMatED MERit oRDER EffECts Price effect [€/MWh] 25 20 15 10 5 0 8 Sensfuss et al., DE Jonsson et al., DK chApTEr 6 themeritordereffectoflarge-scalewindintegration 5 MOE price and volume effect in 2009 prices Munksgaard et al., DK data and none on future forecasts. Also, the studies focussed on single countries instead of the European power market as a whole. Therefore, there is a need for a more holistic study which encompasses several countries within the European power market. Furthermore, the various countries should be analysed under 17 4 23 Delarue et al., BE MOE price effect MOE volume effect 11 Weight, DE 1.3 Neubarth, DE the same set of assumptions and most importantly, include a picture of the future. It would be useful to get an indication of the actual price effects in 2020 with stricter emission reduction targets and more renewables in the power mix. 3 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Volume effect in billion Euro/year 137
SUmmaryOffINDINgS Numerous studies on merit order effects have been published in recent years. Most of them, however, are studies of single countries, e.g. Germany, Spain and Denmark. Consequently, there is a need to estimate the merit order effects at European level in order to assess total reductions in power market prices because of large-scale wind power development in Europe boosted by the EU renewable target for 2020 of a 20% renewable share of total energy use. The report consists of the description of Pöyry’s modelling analysis, which analyses and quantifies the European merit order effect; that is, the effects of increased wind power in-feed in Europe on average wholesale power prices in 2020. The analysis is based on a comparison of two different power market scenarios for 2020. The “Reference” 138 scenario has a constrained renewable capacity development. All renewable energy source capacity volumes, including wind, are fixed at 2008 levels. In comparison, the “Wind” scenario assumes a Europe-wide increase in installed wind capacities of 200 GW from 2008 (65 GW) until 2020, reaching a total of 265 GW. All other renewable capacities are fixed at 2008 levels as well. A modelling tool was used to investigate the two scenarios outlining possible European power market development up to 2020. Part of the scenario analysis involves quantifying future investment needs based on the expected wind and renewable capacities. Conventional technology investments are determined by the modelling tool according to long run marginal cost levels based on the long run market equilibrium for 2020. Therefore, the study investigates the long-term Powering Europe: wind energy and the electricity grid Photo: Getty
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Powering Europe: wind energy and th
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CONTENTS chapter1 Introduction:
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1 INtrODUctION:aeUrOpeaNVI
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available for dealing with variable
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Europe has a particular competitive
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odies ENTSO-E and ACER, the key del
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maINchalleNgeSaNDISSUeS
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4.1 Wind generation and wind plants
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such as in Spain, demonstrate that
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With the very high shares of wind p
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power capacity reaching 265 GW in 2
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tablE 1: RolEs anD REsPonsibilitiEs
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Grid infrastructure upgrade Reinfor
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Institutional and regulatory aspect
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Legend The grid maps depict the evo
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European renewable energy grid 2020
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European renewable energy grid 2040
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2 WINDgeNeratIONaNDWIND
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operates below its peak efficiency
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tablE 1: oVERViEw of winD tURbinE C
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fiGURE 2: winD tURbinE PowER CURVE
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grid, such as large conventional ge
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Of special interest for system oper
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fiGURE 6: ExaMPlE of thE sMoothinG
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temperature gradients, wind speeds
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fiGURE 10: foRECast aCCURaCy in sPa
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1.4 Impacts of large-scale wind pow
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cONNectINgWINDpOWertOth
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2.2 An overview of the present grid
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network element is important for sy
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The implementation of further liber
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to 24 hours ahead). Furthermore, we
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INtrODUctION While today’s power
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alancingdemand,conventional
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Improvedwindpowermanagemen
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WaySOfeNhaNcINgWINDpOWe
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Waysofenhancingwindpowe
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Windpower’scontributiont
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Windpower’scontributiont
Page 83 and 84: Nationalandeuropeanintegra
Page 91 and 92: 92 aNNex:prINcIpleSOfpOWer
Page 93 and 94: 4 UpgraDINgelectrIcItyNetWOrk
Page 95 and 96: transportation of power from genera
Page 97 and 98: ImmeDIateOppOrtUNItIeSfOrU
Page 99 and 100: lONgertermImprOVemeNtStO
Page 101 and 102: it compares favourably to a radial
Page 103 and 104: It was found that despite TEN-E, th
Page 105 and 106: • Reduce dependency on gas and oi
Page 107 and 108: technology with the following typic
Page 109 and 110: network planning carried out by the
Page 111 and 112: The studies either allocate the tot
Page 113 and 114: existing distributed assets includi
Page 115 and 116: SUmmary Upgrading the European n
Page 117 and 118: 5 electrIcItymarketDeSIgN Pho
Page 119 and 120: arrIerStOINtegratINgWIND
Page 121 and 122: DeVelOpmeNtSINtheeUrOpeaN
Page 123 and 124: 3.3 Legal framework for further lib
Page 125 and 126: • Wind power support schemes are
Page 127 and 128: guideline and subsequent network co
Page 129 and 130: ackgrOUND Wind power in the EU has
Page 131 and 132: INtrODUctION This study aims to ana
Page 133: Introduction However, this study in
Page 137 and 138: methODOlOgy This chapter describes
Page 139 and 140: methodology 4.2 Modelling Modelling
Page 141 and 142: aNalySIS 5.1 Modelling results Meri
Page 143 and 144: analysis In order to assess the mer
Page 145 and 146: analysis Merit order and volume mer
Page 147 and 148: analysis fiGURE 9: EnDoGEnoUs inVEs
Page 149 and 150: analysis fiGURE 11: total installED
Page 151 and 152: analysis fiGURE 14: tRaDE flows foR
Page 153 and 154: analysis fiGURE 15: sEnsitiVity anD
Page 155 and 156: analysis and natural gas in the bas
Page 157 and 158: analysis equilibrium price of €90
Page 159 and 160: cONclUSION The modelling analysi
Page 161 and 162: aNNex 7.1 Assumptions in the model
Page 163 and 164: annex fiGURE 19: lonG-tERM MaRGinal
Page 165 and 166: annex The Classic Carbon model is a
Page 167 and 168: annex marketpowermodelling Al
Page 169 and 170: eferences,glossaryandabbre
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Powering Europe - European Wind Energy Association

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