Powering Europe - European Wind Energy Association

Scenariodevelopment
The scenarios were developed so that the modelling analysis
could show the effect of the additional wind capacities
on the future power system. For this reason, the main
difference between both scenarios is the amount of wind
capacity. In the reference scenario, wind capacities are
kept at the 2008 level and no additional increase in wind
capacities is assumed. In contrast, the Wind scenario has
wind power capacity increase from 2008 to 2020 following
EWEA’s “High” scenario for 2020. 7 For the sake of the
simulation, all other renewable sources and their capacities
have been kept constant at 2008 levels in both scenarios,
so that they present the same relative shares of
total electricity demand in 2020 as in 2008.
In the development of the two scenarios which will
form the basis for the modelling analysis, major market
variables used as model input, such as fossil fuel
prices, power demand, carbon reduction targets and
conventional investment costs and have been determined
for each scenario. Each scenario has only been
developed for 2020, so that the overall analysis consists
of two models. The results from this modelling
analysis include the average annual wholesale price
levels for electricity per country and the merit order
curve for all countries covered by the analyses (EU
27 plus Norway and Switzerland). Moreover, power demand,
generation, the technology mix, transmission,
investments and the carbon price could be shown for
each scenario and the year respectively.
tablE 1: sCEnaRio assUMPtions
chApTEr 6 themeritordereffectoflarge-scalewindintegration
In Table 1 below, the scenario assumptions on the
main input parameters for both scenarios are summarised
and compared. The red marked cell demonstrates
the only difference in the input scenario assumptions
between the two scenarios.
The figure below indicates the assumed wind capacities
for both scenarios. The Reference scenario represents
2008 values. The installed capacities given
for the Wind scenario represent the high values from
EWEA’s Pure Power scenarios. The figure also indicates
the separate countries by its darker blue marking.
fiGURE 3: assUMED winD CaPaCitiEs of
thE REfEREnCE anD winD sCEnaRio
input parameter Reference scenario wind scenario
Fuel prices Forecast from IEA Forecast from IEA
Coal: €11/MWh, Gas: €29/MWh
Wind capacities As 2008 High growth compared to 2008
Carbon policies/targets EU target: -20% to 1990 EU target: -20% to 1990
CO 2 price: €48/tonne CO 2 price: €30/tonne
Conventional investments According to long run marginal costs According to long run marginal costs
Capacities of RES other than wind As 2008 As base year 2008
Colour code: For the same “Input Parameter”, blue marked cells represent the same value. Red marked cells are representing a different input value compared to the other
scenario. The green marked cells are calculated model output and mentioned for the sake of completeness.
7 pure power- Wind energy targets for 2020 and 2030, A report by the European Wind Energy Association - 2009 update.
141