Powering Europe - European Wind Energy Association

fiGURE 10: total ElECtRiCity DEManD assUMED in thE MoDEllinG analysis
Total demand [TWh/a]
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
3,348
2008
Figure 9 depicts the investments the Classic Carbon
model is simulating in order to meet the scenarios’
power demand. Investments are made in accordance
with long-term marginal costs. In a perfect market, the
model will invest in the least expensive technology as
long as the expected power price exceeds the longterm
marginal costs.
It can be seen above that endogenous investments
only take place for conventional lignite, coal and
gas technologies 13 . For both scenarios, most of the
future investments will be in coal. For most of the
countries, the Reference scenario requires more investment
than the Wind scenario. This is because
with power demand increasing from 2008 to 2020
by more than 400 TWh/a (see Figure 10), the older
capacities are phased out and additional new capacities
are needed in order to meet demand. The Wind
scenario reduces the need for conventional investments.
(For the model’s detailed long run marginal
cost assumptions, see Annex 1).
13 “Endogenous” investments mean investments which are a model result. They are simulated by the model in order to balance supply
with demand. In comparison, the model also includes “policy based” investments which are forced into the model as input assumption,
e.g. known shut downs and known investment projects already under construction.
chApTEr 6 themeritordereffectoflarge-scalewindintegration
Total demand
3,754
3,860
Reference 2020 Wind 2020
However, in most countries, wind investments alone
are not sufficient to cover demand, and additional conventional
investments take place. Usually, investment
in conventional power generation technologies are
higher in the Reference than in the Wind scenario, except
for in the Czech Republic and Slovenia. Here, obviously,
the extremely high investments in wind power
in the Wind scenario require additional base-load capacity
investments. Consequently, investment in coal
is higher in the Wind than in the Reference scenario
for these countries.
The investment developments described above include
peak capacity developments. The Classic Carbon
model includes volatile generation profiles for different
technologies, for example for wind power. For
each period over the year a statistical wind profile is
used to simulate wind power generation. As a consequence,
the model might also invest in peak capacities,
mainly gas turbines, in order to supply peak demand
if necessary.
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