Powering Europe - European Wind Energy Association

fiGURE 4: MoDEllED CaPaCity Mix of thE REfEREnCE
sCEnaRio in 2020
Other renewables
25%
Wind
9%
Capacity mix in Reference Scenario
Nuclear
15%
Fuel oil
Lignite 2%
3%
Other
1%
are depicted. The technologies are sorted according to
their short run marginal costs and the type of fuel they
use. Although the graph indicates the short-run marginal
costs, it is based on the long-term market equilibrium,
which assumes the cost efficiency of all generating
units. However, in order to follow the customary way a
chApTEr 6 themeritordereffectoflarge-scalewindintegration
Coal
27%
Gas
18%
fiGURE 5: MERit oRDER CURVE of thE REfEREnCE sCEnaRio foR 2020
Short-term marginal costs [€ cent/kWh]
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
merit order curve is depicted, and make it comparable,
the curve below only includes non-fuel variable costs,
transport, fuel and carbon costs but no capital costs
(see the Annex for a more detailed description of the
model’s cost assumptions). The power market’s equilibrium
price, when the total demand is 3,754 TWh, has
been estimated at 8.58 €cents/kWh.
From the merit order curve, it can be seen that European
power demand is first supplied by waste, hydro and
wind technologies as they have the lowest short-term
marginal costs. These technologies provide about 680
TWh altogether, with hydro providing two-thirds of this.
Conventional existing nuclear technologies provide
780 TWh at marginal costs of 1.5 €cent/kWh on average.
10 The major share of Europe’s demand, about
1,700 TWh, costs between 5 and 7 €cent/kWh. It is
made up mainly of hard coal technologies and a very
small share comes from lignite and biomass technologies.
At higher cost levels, gas technologies dominate,
supplying about 500 TWh per annum. The Reference
scenario’s marginal technology at the equilibrium price
is combined cycle gas turbines.
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Cumulative generation in TWh
Equilibrium price
8.58 €c/kWh
Fuel Wind Hydro Nuclear Lignite Coal Peat Biomass HFO Oil Gas Waste
Colour
Demand
10 Non fuel variable costs are estimated at €~10/MWh for new nuclear plants. Older plants might have slightly higher variable costs.
Fuel costs are assumed at € 1.2 – 1.5/MWh fuel. At efficiencies of 35-37% this means fuel costs of € 3.5 - 4/MWh. Sources are
presentations from the EDF 2009 Energy UK Suppliers Forum – New Nuclear Opportunities and publications of Swedish nuclear
plant operators.
145