Powering Europe - European Wind Energy Association

for installed wind capacities in 2020 are defined externally
and typed into the model as fixed data input.
tablE 10: fUEl PRiCE assUMPtions (2008 REal PRiCEs)
Coal €/Mwh natural gas €/Mwh
2008 7 12.5
2020 11 29
Fuel price assumptions for 2020 come from the International Energy Agency. 17
Furthermore, all other renewable technologies, solar, wind
and bio-energy are kept constant at the 2008 level in
both scenarios. This might seem unrealistic because they
should be considered as policy based investments which
would happen according to already implemented support
schemes. However, we did not add any exogenous capacities
for renewable energy technologies other than wind in
order to determine the pure merit order effect of wind power
investments only. Additional policy based investments
in other renewable technologies might be considered as
“business as usual”, but would also lead to a decrease in
17 IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 – in combination with assumptions of the New Energy policy scenario found in: “An EU ENErGY SEcUrITY
AND SOLIDArITY AcTIO_ pLAN Europe’s current and future energy position Demand – resources – investments” {cOM(2008)
781 final}
chApTEr 6 themeritordereffectoflarge-scalewindintegration
average power prices as long they replaced some more expensive
conventional technologies. This would distort the
results and the merit order effect of wind power. Since this
study was supposed to only investigate the merit order effect
of wind power it restricted policy based investments
in other renewable technologies.
The following table indicates the assumed wind power
capacities for the two scenarios. The Reference scenario
uses 2008 values. The installed capacities given for the
Wind scenario represent the high values from EWEA’s
Pure Power scenarios.
Power demand
The following demand input data for 2020 was provided
by EWEA 18 .
The demand modelling in the Classic Carbon model is
detailed and advanced since the model uses a flexible
demand approach (that is, a demand that can react
in MW austria belgium bulgary Cyprus Czech R. Denmark Estonia finland france Germany Greece hungary ireland italy
Reference
Scenario
Wind
Scenario
Reference
Scenario
Wind
Scenario
onshore 995 354 158 0 150 2,771 78 119 3,404 23,891 985 127 977 3,736
offshore 30 409 24 12 25
onshore 4,000 2,500 3,500 500 1,800 4,000 500 2,000 20,000 42,000 8,300 1,200 6,000 17,000
offshore 2,000 2,500 100 1,000 6,000 10,000 200 1,000 1,000
latvia lithuania luxemb. Malta netherl. Poland Portugal Romania slovakia sllovenia spain sweden Uk total
onshore 27 54 35 0 1,978 472 2,862 10 3 0 16,740 888 2,650
offshore 247 133 591
onshore 200 1,000 700 200 4,400 12,000 9,000 3,500 1,000 700 41,000 8,000 14,000
265,000
offshore 100 100 6,000 500 0 0 1,500 3,000 20,000
in TWh austria belgium bulgary Cyprus Czech R. Denmark Estonia finland france Germany Greece hungary ireland italy
Demand in 2020
78 109 56 7 103 40 15 102 633 674 80 53 37 442
latvia lithuania luxemb. Malta netherl. Poland Portugal Romania slovakia sllovenia spain sweden Uk total
18 The figures refer to the calculations for EWEA’s pure power Scenarios and derive from Trends to 2030 (electricity generation minus
net imports).
64,935
9 21 4 2 152 204 77 93 43 18 387 187 452 4,079
165