Powering Europe - European Wind Energy Association

analysis
In order to assess the merit order effect of additional
wind power capacities, the merit order curve of an additional
Wind scenario (described on page 140) has been
analysed and compared to the Reference scenario.
In the Wind scenario, an additional 200 GW of installed
wind capacity (making a total of 265 GW) has
been introduced for 2020. All other exogenous renewable
and conventional capacity inputs to the model
were the same as in the Reference scenario. In addition,
the model realised that there would be insufficient
capacity to meet supply. Hence, the two scenarios
vary in their endogenously modelled conventional
capacity development.
In the Wind scenario, the total installed capacity in
2020 was modelled at 960 GW. Its capacity mix can
be seen in Figure 6 below.
Figure 7 shows the Wind scenario’s merit order curve.
It can be seen that wind technologies generate about
650 TWh compared to 160 TWh in the Reference
fiGURE 7: MERit oRDER CURVE of thE winD sCEnaRio foR 2020
146
Short-term marginal costs [€ cent/kWh]
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
fiGURE 6: MoDEllED CaPaCity Mix of thE winD sCEnaRio
in 2020
Other renewables
21%
Wind
28%
Capacity mix in Wind Scenario
Fuel oil
Lignite 2%
3%
Other
0%
Coal
19%
Nuclear
12%
Gas
15%
scenario. Wind power technologies therefore displace
more expensive generating technologies in the merit
order curve and shift them to the right in the figure
below. As a result, the scenario’s total demand level
of 3,860 TWh can be supplied at a marginal cost and
equilibrium price level of 7.5 €cents/kWh.
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Cumulative generation [TWh]
Equilibrium price
7.5 €c/kWh
Fuel Wind Hydro Nuclear Lignite Coal Peat Biomass HFO Oil Gas Waste
Colour
Demand
Powering Europe: wind energy and the electricity grid