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E conoM ics Fig. 7 tion cases where a decision had to be made on quality claims months after shipment of the material, which is not easy); transport security, with hardly any theft compared to container shipment; trust and partnership between scrap suppliers and scrap consumers. Of course there are also benefits associated with exporting. One should mention the large volumes involved and the higher prices because these allow metal traders to remain competitive. outlook Fig. 8 Fig. 9 As far as future aluminium scrap flows are concerned, we can assume that demand for scrap in the developing countries, in particular in China, will continue to grow, and scrap consumers in Europe, North America and Japan will increasingly have to compete with consumers in China and the Far East. Another factor that will affect scrap demand will be the rising cost of producing primary aluminium in the developed countries due to electricity costs, bureaucratic issues, carbon emission taxes, etc. It remains to be seen if the shale gas exploration in the USA, and the resultant lower energy costs, eventually boosts aluminium production in North America. And last but not least, premiums for primary aluminium might influence scrap availability. Whatever happens, one thing is certain: scrap will become an increasingly desirable commodity. One cannot foresee today if, or when, China, for example, will be able to generate sufficient domestic scrap to reduce the need to import. CRU tried to estimate when the turning point for steel scrap would be and predicted that this would happen in the late 2020s; however, it did not make any such forecast for aluminium scrap. Scrap will always be exported and for many traders price will be the only issue that decides whether they export or sell to local scrap consumers. Indeed, for many traders exporting scrap might even be the only way for them to remain competitive and survive at a time when scrap consumers are becoming increasingly more aggressive and buying scrap directly from the industry, thus cutting out the trading companies. It is okay for scrap consumers to adopt this approach but one should not forget that the volume of available scrap cannot be increased by direct purchases. In spite of these problems and possible conflicts, many trading companies still consider the future of the metal industry in Europe to be a key factor in the future of the metal trade and thus prefer not to export the available scrap. 24 ALUMINIUM · 5/2013
E conoM ics In the author’s opinion strategic partnerships between scrap suppliers and scrap consumers in Europe are necessary and helpful for both sides in order to avoid excessive exports and to find a suitable modus vivendi to safeguard the needs of the aluminium industry. Fig. 10 acknowledgement A large part of the presentation on scrap flows is based on an as yet unpublished study prepared by CRU Strategies on behalf of the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) in 2012. BIR, and especially Robert Stein as the president of its non-ferrous division, commissioned this study and the author wishes to thank BIR for allowing him to use a large part of the data for the presentation he gave at the OEA Aluminium Recycling Congress and this article, which is based on that presentation. author Dr. Peter Dahmen is managing director of Schoof & Haslacher GmbH & Co. KG, München, Germany. He is senior vice president of BIR’s non ferrous division. Solutions for Aluminium Recycling : : Design, Engineering and Manufacturing of Heat Treatment Equipment ELINO INDUSTRIE-OFENBAU GMBH : : ALUMINIUM · 5/2013 25
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