Draft MTP/SCS Comments Received - sacog

Transportation:
It has long been a concern of ECOS and others that, too often, housing and commercial
development takes place without adequate transit, and that when and if transit is put in place, it is
then difficult to change car-oriented behavior. It is understood that SB375 only requires quality
transit to be planned within the time horizon of the MTP for residential projects to meet the
criteria for CEQA benefits, and we are pleased with SACOG's approach to targeting
transportation projects that will maximize effects of investment. Yet we feel that more specific
strategies are needed to ensure appropriate phasing of transit and active transportation
improvements with residential development.
We hope to see SACOG review transportation project phasing in relationship to current densities
and the timing of future development, working with other agencies and local jurisdictions to
establish protocols which: identify and accelerate transit for high-density arterial corridors and
existing urban areas that currently lack adequate service: flag and defer or cancel any costly
transit capital projects that would begin construction before the densities would justify the cost
(as suggested by Strategy 28.9): Flag, defer or cancel road and transit construction that would
trigger premature peripheral growth.
Land Use:
The land use forecast in the MTP/SCS represents an improvement over previous regional
planning efforts. The MTP/SCS anticipates accommodating expected growth with a vision
toward more efficient land use and a smaller expansion of the regional development footprint.
There are a variety of factors that help to make this MTP update a promising step toward a
sustainable future for the Sacramento region, including the first-time incorporation of SB 375
requirements, SACOG’s advanced modeling tools, and extensive public outreach to help define
the MTP/SCS preferred scenario for land use and transportation.
Despite these improvements, the MTP/SCS includes key assumptions that, if adopted, could
hinder the region’s ability to achieve important land use and transportation objectives.
The single most important assumption in the MTP/SCS land use forecast that should be reviewed
is the overestimation of demand for single-family large-lot housing. Although this type of
housing has dominated residential development throughout the region for the past several
decades, independent studies consistently show that demographic changes are reducing the
demand for this type of housing. The MTP/SCS acknowledges that “…there will be significant
demand, especially by the large, retirement age baby boomer generation and the even larger
Generation Y echo-boomer cohort (those born between 1978 and 1994), for new housing,
including rentals and small lot homes…” 1 . Despite this, Table 3.9 of the MTP/SCS shows that 28
percent of new housing in 2035 is single-family large-lot.
This contrasts sharply with at least one recent study concluding that the Sacramento region
already has enough single-family large-lot residential supply to meet demand through 2035. 2
1 SACOG, Draft MTP/SCS 2035, November 10, 2011, p. 3-13.
2 Nelson, Arthur C. The New California Dream: How Demographic and Economic Trends May
Shape the Housing Market. Washington, D.C.: Urban Land Institute, 2011, Table 4.4, p. 43.
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