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Draft MTP/SCS Comments Received - sacog

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Negative impacts are also possible if proactive policies and planning measures are not in place:<br />

Because many transit areas have a higher share of low-income households, negative public health<br />

impacts (e.g., pedestrian injuries) could have a disproportionate affect on those families.<br />

In addition, there are significant current and historical environmental injustices related to lowincome<br />

communities and communities of color having disproportionate exposures to hazardous<br />

air quality associated with freeways, which may be perpetuated by increasing growth in places<br />

with these characteristics. clv<br />

The demand for housing near transit is equally strong amongst all income groups. clvi New<br />

development, including transit-oriented development, can lead to a risk of displacement for<br />

existing low-income populations. This can be mitigated by providing affordable housing in TOD<br />

areas clvii and by stabilizing rent prices for local small businesses.<br />

METHODOLOGY<br />

Through the SB375 Sustainable Communities Strategy process, MPOs should use their regionspecific<br />

analysis of housing, population and workforce growth in proposed transit priority areas.<br />

RESOURCES<br />

Brookings Institute Report: State of Metropolitan America – On the front lines of demographic<br />

transition<br />

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/Metro/state_of_metro_america/metro_a<br />

merica_report.pdf<br />

This report uses the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program. Using data from the last<br />

decennial census, more recent national surveys, and administrative records at all levels of<br />

government, the Population Estimates Program produces annual estimates of population, and its<br />

“components of change” (natural increase, domestic migration, and immigration), for all<br />

incorporated municipalities, counties, and states nationwide. The program also estimates state and<br />

county populations by age and race/ethnicity annually.<br />

http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/schedule.html<br />

ABAG (The Association of Bay Area Governments) is responsible for making long-term<br />

forecasts or population, housing, and employment for the nine-county Bay Area. These forecasts<br />

assist local governments in planning for our changing environment. ABAG produces updated<br />

forecasts every 2 years and publishes them as Projections. In recent updates, the Projections<br />

forecasts have presented a realistic assessment of growth in the region, while recognizing trends in<br />

markets and demographics, while also recognizing local policies that promote more compact<br />

infill- and transit-oriented development. http://www.abag.ca.gov/planning/currentfcst/<br />

STANDARDS<br />

See standards suggested for Metric #4.<br />

Frank & Pivo’s 1995 study on the impact of smart growth on modal shift clviii may offer useful<br />

benchmarks:<br />

Nearly all travel is done by car until residential density reached 13 persons per acre;<br />

Employment density levels greater than 75 employees per acre is necessary before there is a<br />

substantial increase in transit and pedestrian travel for work trips.<br />

50<br />

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