Draft MTP/SCS Comments Received - sacog

Consideration of this information—which arguably represents the most detailed supply and
demand analysis of SACOG’s housing market conducted to date—casts a new light on
SACOG’s land use pattern. The ULI study admits that, while the best available market
information finds little to no new demand for large lot single family homes, there will be some
exceptions to this trend in niche markets. However, the general conclusion, which seems to be
consistent across all four regions, is that there is a surplus of large lot single family homes in
2010 as compared to 2035 demand: in SACOG’s case, that surplus is projected to be the
equivalent of 193,000 homes. By contrast, the MTP/SCS projects that 29% of all new growth
between 2008 and 2035 will be in the form of large lot single family homes. When compared
with a robust market study that claims very little to negative demand for this housing type,
SACOG’s housing mix appears a cause for concern.
In addition to the threat posed to valuable natural resources by proposing to house nearly a third
of the next increment of growth in large lot single family homes, there is an economic risk.
Overbuilding a product type which appears to already be oversupplied, even assuming 23 years
of robust population growth, can threaten the value of existing homes of this product type. We
strongly urge the SACOG board to take note of this and other similar market studies and to
consider the broader regional economic impacts.
Second, the study finds a robust demand for homes near transit. In 2008, only 14 percent of
housing units and 27 percent of employees were within SACOG’s definition of transit priority
areas. Over the life of the plan, SACOG locates 38 percent of new dwelling units and 39 percent
of new employees in these areas. SACOG’s investment in new transit service brings high quality
service to an additional 152,216 existing dwelling units and 240,013 existing employees. While
the provision of new transit to both new and existing units is the equivalent of serving all new
growth with transit, the fact remains that with this next increment of growth, SACOG locates
fewer than half of new homes and jobs near transit. As SACOG continues to monitor
implementation of this SCS and prepare for either a mid-cycle update or the next SCS, we would
strongly encourage you to focus development in areas that provide people with real
transportation choices.
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