Asia Memory-Bad memories fading

TMT
Memory Devices Technology
8 October 2010
abc
and higher end servers. We also expect leading
vendors’ increased production of 2Gb parts to
stimulate demand for larger memory modules.
Here we look at the potential impact of corporate
servers, which account for c10% of global bit
demand, but we believe accounts for a much
larger proportion of global DRAM revenue;
server DRAM is c2.5-6x more expensive
compared to ‘regular’ memory modules.
DRAM demand forecast
40,000
60%
50%
30,000
40%
20,000
30%
10,000
20%
10%
-
0%
2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f
Demand (1Gb, m) Change (%)
Source: IDC, HSBC estimates
Upside/downside risks
Key upside risk to our forecasts is a long-term,
controlled growth of the industry, with strong bit
growth and relatively mild ASP declines.
We expect bit growth to accelerate in 2H10, due
to PC build for the holidays, plus corporate PC
recovery. We forecast most of the bit growth to
occur in 2H10 as the impact of node migration by
makers starts to come into play.
We think downside risks are relatively limited for
DRAM demand over the next two years. Risks
include slower than expected increase in DRAM
content per box for PCs on relatively high ASPs.
The key supply downside is irrational competition
leading to rapid ASP deflation. From 2012 onwards,
additional risks include technology migration
difficulties due to newer technologies such as EUV.
Catalysts – short term, long term
Short-term catalysts include strong data
points from various PC OEMs for unit sales
and content per box. Near term, sell through
data from PC OEMs over the holidays in
China and developed markets will be key.
DRAM bit demand, 2009
DRAM bit demand, 2012e
Others
10%
Others
9%
Mobile
handsets
Mobile
handsets
8% 10%
PC
PC
51%
Other data
56%
Other data
processing
26%
processing
27%
Tablets
3%
Source: IDC, HSBC estimates
Source: IDC, HSBC estimates
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