Asia Memory-Bad memories fading

TMT
Memory Devices Technology
8 October 2010
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Global NAND fab capacity
Kwpy, kwpm 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e
Samsung 4,159 4,327 4,860 5,820 362 360 360 360 370 390 420 440
y-o-y (%) 7% 4% 12% 20% -3% -1% 0% 0% 3% 5% 8% 5%
Hynix 907 1,267 1,687 2,187 96 106 106 116 126 136 146 156
y-o-y (%) -42% 40% 33% 30% 26% 10% 0% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7%
Toshiba / SanDisk 2,787 3,360 4,350 5,160 260 270 280 310 320 320 390 420
y-o-y (%) -3% 21% 29% 19% 0% 4% 4% 11% 3% 0% 22% 8%
IMFT 1,260 1,440 1,542 1,962 105 125 125 125 125 125 132 132
y-o-y (%) 16% 14% 7% 27% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0%
Renesas / PSC 11 11 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
y-o-y (%) -81% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Numonyx 71 72 80 80 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7
y-o-y (%) 2% 2% 11% 0% -25% 8% 8% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8” Total 2,394 1,296 1,164 960 144 95 96 97 97 97 97 97
y-o-y (%) -60% -46% -10% -18% -3% -34% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
12” Total 8,130 9,900 12,012 14,702 765 825 835 875 905 935 1,052 1,112
y-o-y (%) 16% 22% 21% 22% 1% 8% 1% 5% 3% 3% 13% 6%
12” total (kwpm) 678 825 1,001 1,225 64 69 70 73 75 78 88 93
12” (8” Eq.) 18,293 22,275 27,027 33,080 1,721 1,856 1,879 1,969 2,036 2,104 2,367 2,502
y-o-y (%) 16% 22% 21% 22% 1% 8% 1% 5% 3% 3% 13% 6%
Total (12” equ. kwpy) 9,194 10,476 12,529 15,129 829 867 878 918 948 978 1,095 1,155
y-o-y (%) -5% 14% 20% 21% 1% 5% 1% 5% 3% 3% 12% 5%
Total (12” eq. kwpm) 766 873 1,044 1,261 829 867 878 918 948 978 1,095 1,155
12” proportion (%) 88.4% 94.5% 95.9% 97.2% 92.3% 95.1% 95.1% 95.3% 95.5% 95.6% 96.1% 96.3%
Source: IDC, HSBC estimates
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