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TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc and higher end servers. We also expect leading vendors’ increased production of 2Gb parts to stimulate demand for larger memory modules. Here we look at the potential impact of corporate servers, which account for c10% of global bit demand, but we believe accounts for a much larger proportion of global DRAM revenue; server DRAM is c2.5-6x more expensive compared to ‘regular’ memory modules. DRAM demand forecast 40,000 60% 50% 30,000 40% 20,000 30% 10,000 20% 10% - 0% 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f Demand (1Gb, m) Change (%) Source: IDC, HSBC estimates Upside/downside risks Key upside risk to our forecasts is a long-term, controlled growth of the industry, with strong bit growth and relatively mild ASP declines. We expect bit growth to accelerate in 2H10, due to PC build for the holidays, plus corporate PC recovery. We forecast most of the bit growth to occur in 2H10 as the impact of node migration by makers starts to come into play. We think downside risks are relatively limited for DRAM demand over the next two years. Risks include slower than expected increase in DRAM content per box for PCs on relatively high ASPs. The key supply downside is irrational competition leading to rapid ASP deflation. From 2012 onwards, additional risks include technology migration difficulties due to newer technologies such as EUV. Catalysts – short term, long term Short-term catalysts include strong data points from various PC OEMs for unit sales and content per box. Near term, sell through data from PC OEMs over the holidays in China and developed markets will be key. DRAM bit demand, 2009 DRAM bit demand, 2012e Others 10% Others 9% Mobile handsets Mobile handsets 8% 10% PC PC 51% Other data 56% Other data processing 26% processing 27% Tablets 3% Source: IDC, HSBC estimates Source: IDC, HSBC estimates 15
TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc Global DRAM – demand & supply forecast 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e Supply-demand ratio (%) 99.9 100.1 101.5 99.5 98.0 91.9 94.2 115.7 110.1 103.8 94.7 100.5 Supply (1Gb, m) 10,413 15,488 23,071 32,990 3,338 3,557 3,936 4,657 5,005 5,423 6,024 6,619 Change (%) 22% 49% 49% 43% 5% 7% 11% 18% 7% 8% 11% 10% Demand (1Gb, m) 10,422 15,476 22,721 33,165 3,405 3,869 4,179 4,024 4,544 5,226 6,362 6,589 Change (%) 24% 48% 47% 46% 5% 14% 8% -4% 13% 15% 22% 4% DRAM sales (USDm) 23,988 42,890 43,497 46,497 9,856 11,290 10,934 10,811 10,413 10,590 11,118 11,377 Change (%) 0% 79% 1% 7% 7% 15% -3% -1% -4% 2% 5% 2% Blended ASP (USD) 2.30 2.77 1.89 1.41 2.95 3.17 2.78 2.32 2.08 1.95 1.85 1.72 Change (%) -18% 20% -32% -25% 2% 7% -12% -16% -10% -6% -5% -7% DDR3 contract ASP (USD) 1.84 2.10 1.39 1.05 2.37 2.53 2.15 1.77 1.57 1.46 1.36 1.26 Change (%) 15% -34% -24% 12% 7% -15% -18% -11% -7% -7% -7% Wafer cap (kwpy, kwpm) 16,985 18,206 18,881 20,366 1,489 1,489 1,514 1,569 1,569 1,569 1,569 1,569 Change (%) -1% 7% 4% 8% -1% 0% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% Demand (MB bn) 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e PC 738 1,076 1,532 2,195 237 269 290 280 306 352 429 444 Tablets - 5 55 115 1 1 1 1 11 13 15 16 Other data processing 346 522 781 1,142 115 130 141 136 156 180 219 226 Mobile handsets 111 177 266 429 39 44 48 46 53 61 74 77 Others 139 202 274 363 44 50 55 52 55 63 77 80 Total 1,334 1,981 2,908 4,245 436 495 535 515 582 669 814 843 Change (%) 24% 48% 47% 46% 5% 14% 8% -4% 13% 15% 22% 4% Demand mix (%) PC 55% 54% 53% 52% 54% 54% 54% 54% 53% 53% 53% 53% Tablets 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% Other data processing 26% 26% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26% 26% 27% 27% 27% 27% Mobile handsets 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% Others 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Device shipment (m units) 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e PC 299 342 366 397 75 86 92 89 73 84 102 106 Change (%) 2% 14% 7% 9% -19% 14% 8% -4% -18% 15% 22% 4% DT PC 136 147 156 162 32 37 40 38 31 36 44 45 NB PC 141 171 195 224 38 43 46 44 39 45 55 57 Netbook 22 24 14 11 5 6 7 6 3 3 4 4 Other data processing 43 60 78 97 13 15 16 16 16 18 22 23 Change (%) -11% 12% 13% 18% 43% -7% -8% -8% 44% -7% -8% -8% Mobile handsets (m) 1,116 1,244 1,350 1,457 284 298 321 342 316 332 346 356 Change (%) -8% 11% 9% 8% -7% 5% 8% 7% -8% 5% 4% 3% Smartphones (m) 176 271 377 509 55 65 72 79 84 93 98 102 Change (%) 8% 54% 39% 35% 7% 18% 11% 10% 6% 11% 5% 4% Tablets (m) - 16 73 102 - 3 4 9 12 15 21 25 Change (%) 356% 39% 40% 110% 36% 25% 40% 19% DRAM MB/system PC 2,467 3,143 4,187 5,521 Tablets 288 774 1,161 Other data processing 8,111 8,729 10,047 11,760 Telecoms 99 142 197 295 Source: Company, HSBC estimates. Blended ASP and DDR3 contract ASPs are for 1Gb equivalent. Wafer capacity is 12” equivalent 16
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