Asia Memory-Bad memories fading

More documents

Recommendations

Info

TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc Demand drivers – NAND Remain bullish on NAND; we forecast 2010-12e NAND demand bit CAGR of 103% Demand is structural and persistent, as heavy online and offline growth in media drives portable device storage requirements Our positive outlook on tablets and smartphones is diluted by cannibalisation of media players Summary Relevance, growth rates The non-volatile memory (NVM) segment – led by NAND – remains an exciting high-growth segment. We forecast 2010-12e NAND bit demand CAGR of c103% (compared to supply CAGR of 100%), rising 114% next year. Global appetite remains insatiable for storage capacity that is fast, robust and low-power. NAND demand forecast 45,000 120% 100% 30,000 80% 60% 15,000 40% 20% - 0% 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f Demand (GB, m) Change, y -o-y , q-o-q (%) Source: IDC, HSBC estimates Foreseeable demand remains strong on rising affordability, expanding applications in high potential markets such as smartphones, tablets, PC storage plus nascent markets such as automotive applications. We continue to believe the risk is on the upside, as demand accelerates on more rapid affordability trends. By 2012e we expect global NAND revenues to recover to c54% of DRAM’s, up from this year’s estimated 38%. Unlike DRAM, NAND demand remains strong for commodity parts and embedded solutions. The main embedded demand driver is handsets, led by smartphones, which we estimate will account for 37% of total bit demand next year, up from 28% in 2009. Indeed, c60% of Toshiba’s NAND revenue is from embedded solutions that include mobile and other consumer electronics. Another embedded solutions driver is tablets, a segment which practically did not exist until April this year. For commodity NAND, we are set to see serious demand arising from not only SSDs for regular PCs, but perhaps more importantly, for servers, which we think is a market that is under-estimated in terms of its potential. In this report we highlight the upside risk from corporate server storage systems. We expect SSD growth, which had been stalled this year by high ASPs to see rapid growth due to falling NAND prices and indirect demand stimulation through the ‘tablet effect’. 25
TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc Global NAND demand & supply 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e Supply-demand ratio (%) 100.4 99.5 99.6 96.2 98.6 105.5 98.1 97.1 91.6 100.7 102.1 101.5 Supply (16Gb equ., m) 2,914 4,984 10,670 19,842 931 1,151 1,342 1,561 1,849 2,348 2,985 3,488 Supply (GB, m) 5,828 9,969 21,341 39,684 1,862 2,302 2,684 3,121 3,697 4,697 5,970 6,977 Change, y-o-y, q-o-q (%) 41.1% 71.0% 114.1% 86.0% 4% 24% 17% 16% 18% 27% 27% 17% Demand (16Gb equ., m) 2,903 5,011 10,712 20,626 944 1,091 1,368 1,608 2,018 2,332 2,924 3,437 Demand (GB, m) 5,807 10,021 21,423 41,252 1,888 2,182 2,736 3,216 4,036 4,664 5,848 6,875 Change, y-o-y, q-o-q (%) 45.5% 72.6% 113.8% 92.6% 3% 16% 25% 18% 26% 16% 25% 18% Revenue (USDm) 11,857 16,238 21,384 24,834 3,569 4,066 4,234 4,369 4,545 5,208 5,758 5,872 Change, y-o-y, q-o-q (%) -3.5% 37.0% 31.7% 16.1% -5% 14% 4% 3% 4% 15% 11% 2% NAND/DRAM revenue (%) 49% 38% 49% 54% ASP (USD, 16Gb equ.) 4.1 3.3 2.0 1.3 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 Change, y-o-y, q-o-q (%) -32% -20% -38% -38% -9% -8% -11% -11% -12% -10% -13% -13% Wafer cap. (300mm equ) 9,194 10,476 12,529 15,129 829 867 878 918 948 978 1,095 1,155 Change, y-o-y, q-o-q (%) -5% 14% 20% 21% 1% 5% 1% 5% 3% 3% 12% 5% Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Upside/downside risks Key upside risk to our forecasts is a long-term, controlled growth of the industry where bit growth remains strong, and ASP declines are relatively controlled. Downside demand risks are limited for NAND, but include slower than expected adoption due to slow ASP declines resulting from tight supply-demand; price elasticity is critical especially for devices such as SSDs. The key supply downside is irrational competition leading to rapid ASP deflation. Catalysts – short term, long term Strong bit growth from makers, stronger than expected NAND contract prices. Better than expected unit shipment and product mix guidance/results from handset vendors and USB/flash storage makers such as SanDisk, A-Data, and PQI. Short-term catalysts include strong sales of various Apple iPad devices, launch and strong sales of similar tablet devices by major vendors including Samsung, Toshiba and RIMM. NAND bit demand profile, 2009 NAND bit demand profile, 2012e DVC SSD 3% 5% USB Flash Driv e 11% Handset 28% Others 7% Digital S till Camera 20% Media Play er 26% DVC 2% Tablets 12% SSD 17% USB Flash Driv e 8% Others 5% Digital Still Camera 7% Media Play er 6% Handset 43% Source: IDC, HSBC estimates Source: IDC, HSBC forecasts 26
Page 1 and 2: TMT Memory Devices Technology Octob
Page 3 and 4: TMT Memory Devices Technology 8 Oct
Page 25: TMT Memory Devices Technology 8 Oct
Page 77 and 78:
TMT Memory Devices Technology 8 Oct
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
show all

Asia Memory-Bad memories fading

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?