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TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc Global NAND supply by vendor Units (16Gb equ. m) 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e Samsung 1,039 1,859 3,944 7,135 332 413 511 603 692 853 1,085 1,313 y-o-y (%) 29% 79% 112% 81% 15% 25% 24% 18% 15% 23% 27% 21% % of total 36% 37% 37% 36% 36% 36% 38% 39% 37% 36% 36% 38% Toshiba/SanDisk 1,188 2,090 4,884 8,944 394 486 561 649 776 1,053 1,415 1,640 y-o-y (%) 53% 76% 134% 83% 3% 23% 15% 16% 20% 36% 34% 16% % of total 41% 42% 46% 45% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 45% 47% 47% Hynix 129 251 668 1,319 43 53 67 87 127 156 181 204 y-o-y (%) -30% 94% 167% 97% 0% 22% 27% 29% 47% 22% 16% 13% % of total 4% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% Intel + Micron 539 752 1,120 2,376 157 191 192 211 241 274 290 316 y-o-y (%) 91% 39% 49% 112% -9% 22% 1% 10% 14% 14% 6% 9% % of total 19% 15% 11% 12% 17% 17% 14% 14% 13% 12% 10% 9% Others 18 34 54 67 4 7 11 11 12 13 14 15 y-o-y (%) 24% 84% 60% 25% -39% 75% 44% 6% 8% 7% 7% 5% % of total 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% Total 2,914 4,984 10,670 19,842 931 1,151 1,342 1,561 1,849 2,348 2,985 3,488 y-o-y (%) 41% 71% 114% 86% 4% 24% 17% 16% 18% 27% 27% 17% % of total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Bit market share (%) 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e Samsung 36% 37% 37% 36% 36% 36% 38% 39% 37% 36% 36% 38% Toshiba/SanDisk 41% 42% 46% 45% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 45% 47% 47% Hynix 4% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% IMFT 19% 15% 11% 12% 17% 17% 14% 14% 13% 12% 10% 9% Others 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Bit growth (y-o-y) 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e Samsung 29% 79% 112% 81% 15% 25% 24% 18% 15% 23% 27% 21% Toshiba 53% 76% 134% 83% 3% 23% 15% 16% 20% 36% 34% 16% Hynix -30% 94% 167% 97% 0% 22% 27% 29% 47% 22% 16% 13% IMFT 91% 39% 49% 112% -9% 22% 1% 10% 14% 14% 6% 9% Others 24% 84% 60% 25% -39% 75% 44% 6% 8% 7% 7% 5% Total 41% 71% 114% 86% 4% 24% 17% 16% 18% 27% 27% 17% Source: IDC, HSBC estimates 53
TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc Global NAND fab capacity Kwpy, kwpm 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10e 4Q10e 1Q11e 2Q11e 3Q11e 4Q11e Samsung 4,159 4,327 4,860 5,820 362 360 360 360 370 390 420 440 y-o-y (%) 7% 4% 12% 20% -3% -1% 0% 0% 3% 5% 8% 5% Hynix 907 1,267 1,687 2,187 96 106 106 116 126 136 146 156 y-o-y (%) -42% 40% 33% 30% 26% 10% 0% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% Toshiba / SanDisk 2,787 3,360 4,350 5,160 260 270 280 310 320 320 390 420 y-o-y (%) -3% 21% 29% 19% 0% 4% 4% 11% 3% 0% 22% 8% IMFT 1,260 1,440 1,542 1,962 105 125 125 125 125 125 132 132 y-o-y (%) 16% 14% 7% 27% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% Renesas / PSC 11 11 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 y-o-y (%) -81% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Numonyx 71 72 80 80 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 y-o-y (%) 2% 2% 11% 0% -25% 8% 8% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8” Total 2,394 1,296 1,164 960 144 95 96 97 97 97 97 97 y-o-y (%) -60% -46% -10% -18% -3% -34% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12” Total 8,130 9,900 12,012 14,702 765 825 835 875 905 935 1,052 1,112 y-o-y (%) 16% 22% 21% 22% 1% 8% 1% 5% 3% 3% 13% 6% 12” total (kwpm) 678 825 1,001 1,225 64 69 70 73 75 78 88 93 12” (8” Eq.) 18,293 22,275 27,027 33,080 1,721 1,856 1,879 1,969 2,036 2,104 2,367 2,502 y-o-y (%) 16% 22% 21% 22% 1% 8% 1% 5% 3% 3% 13% 6% Total (12” equ. kwpy) 9,194 10,476 12,529 15,129 829 867 878 918 948 978 1,095 1,155 y-o-y (%) -5% 14% 20% 21% 1% 5% 1% 5% 3% 3% 12% 5% Total (12” eq. kwpm) 766 873 1,044 1,261 829 867 878 918 948 978 1,095 1,155 12” proportion (%) 88.4% 94.5% 95.9% 97.2% 92.3% 95.1% 95.1% 95.3% 95.5% 95.6% 96.1% 96.3% Source: IDC, HSBC estimates 54
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