Asia Memory-Bad memories fading

More documents

Recommendations

Info

TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc Tablet PC DRAM MB bn, % of total DRAM demand 150 100 50 - 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% PC unit shipments, including tablet 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f Tablets % of total DT PC NB PC Tablet Source: HSBC estimates Source: IDC, HSBC estimates Tablets – about 5% global DRAM cannibalisation Tablets are a good thing, we concluded for NAND demand. Unlike netbooks, tablets by their very nature demand NAND as the primary storage device. But an emerging concern for commodity DRAM is that tablets will cannibalise netbook and notebook sales, reducing overall DRAM demand. How big is the threat? On the face of it, tablet’s potential impact on notebook demand could be substantial; Best Buy estimates that the iPad cannibalised laptop PC sales by up to 50% in its last reporting quarter. In our forecast, we calculate 1%, 5% and 5% cannibalisation impact on global DRAM demand for 2010-12e. This could rise if cannibalisation reaches the sort of levels that Best Buy is eluding to. DRAM vendors that can supply low-voltage, low-power DDR (and increasingly DDR2) that could be integrated into tablets stand to benefit, or could offset some of the declines in commodity DRAM demand. In terms of units, we estimate tablets to account for c7.6% of tablets plus notebooks this year. We forecast tablet shipments to soar to 73m units next year, accounting for a quarter of our forecast tablets plus notebooks. We assume netbooks and CULV notebooks will see negative unit shipment growth, and that regular notebook growth will slow to c16.7% y-o-y. We estimate blended notebook plus netbook DRAM content/box of 2.7GB this year, with netbooks averaging a little over 1GB. In contrast, Apple’s iPad, Samsung’s Galaxy Tab and Toshiba’s Folio 100 have paltry DRAM content – 256MB, 512MB and 512MB respectively. The cannibalisation impact will really start to be felt next year, when we estimate tablets will account for 26% of tablet plus notebook units but only c6% of tablet plus notebook DRAM bits. We estimate the impact of tablet cannibalisation to be around 1% of total global DRAM demand this year, but rising to c5% for 2011-12e. In this estimation we used the following assumptions: We estimate tablet unit shipments to rise to 73m units next year and 102m units by 2012e. HSBC’s regional hardware analyst, Wanli Wang, expects ten vendors to launch tablet products next year. He expects notebooks to drive PC demand in 1H and tablets to drive demand in 2H. ARM estimates there will be 40 tablet devices using ARM-based processors this year. We expect DRAM content in tablets to start rising quickly next year to support multitasking and more resource-intensive apps. We think this is doable, given DRAM is only c3% of BOM for current Apple iPads. We think 5- 6% is more likely next year as 512MB 21
TMT <strong>Memory</strong> Devices Technology 8 October 2010 abc becomes standard (as with the Samsung Galaxy Tab). By 2012 we expect tablet DRAM would reach above 1GB per system, catalysed by Windows and competitive pressure amongst tablet vendors to differentiate their products. Intel’s Oak Trail processor – which allows full Windows 7 to run on tablets (and netbooks) – was announced in June 2010 and is set to appear in devices starting 1H11. If we assume Windows 7 Basic is to run on a tablet, it would realistically require 1GB to run. We expect other operating systems to drive DRAM demand over 2011- 12e as well to support complex apps as processing power rapidly increases. 22
Page 1 and 2: TMT Memory Devices Technology Octob
Page 3 and 4: TMT Memory Devices Technology 8 Oct
Page 21: TMT Memory Devices Technology 8 Oct
Page 73 and 74:
TMT Memory Devices Technology 8 Oct
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
show all

Asia Memory-Bad memories fading

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?