Africa Foreign Investor Survey 2005 - unido

Figure 5.10 Annual sales growth (past and future) compared
to investor’s self evaluation of performance
Percentage annual sales growth
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Figure 5.11 Annual sales growth (past and future)
by host country
Côte d'Ivoire
6.8%
3.8%
8.8%
Cameroon
3.9%
Nigeria
Guinea
Mozambique
Senegal
Kenya
Uganda
Burkina Faso
Mali
Malawi
Ethiopia
Tanzania, UR
Ghana
Madagascar
23.8%
32.4%
Well above
expectations
25.2%
25.3%
Above
expectations
21.7%
26.3%
In line with
expectations
6.8%
14.3%
9.8%
19.0%
10.0%
22.5%
11.5%
20.7%
14.9%
24.7%
16.7%
23.9%
18.1%
16.3%
18.3%
14.6%
23.2%
22.3%
24.5%
26.2%
Last year's sales growth
Expected future annual sales
growth over the next three years
Expected future annual sales
growth for the next 3 years
Last year's sales growth
31.8%
33.1%
30.5%
37.2%
39.5%
43.2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
9.2%
18.6%
Below
expectations
0.8%
7.7%
Well below
expectations
54 cases 105 cases 416 cases 286 cases 69 cases
Percentage annual sales growth
cent per annum, and those with performance “below
expectations” expected to double sales growth over the
next three years – from 9 per cent to 19 per cent a year.
Looking at country level comparisons between past
and future annual sales growth rates (figure 5.11, annex
table 5.11) firms in four countries anticipated on average
declines in the rate of sales growth – Ethiopia, Madagascar,
Malawi and Mali. Even so, all four were forecasting
a creditable annual growth rate of over 15 per cent over
(30 per cent for Madagascar) the next three years, down
from above average sales growth in the previous year.
Nigerian firms were anticipating the sharpest improvement
in sales, rising from 7 per cent last year to 37 per
cent average annual growth, perhaps anticipating the
demand stimulation feeding through into the domestic
economy from higher oil prices.
When firms were grouped according to their market
orientation and their organizational structure, it was
noticeable there was convergence towards a mean average
sales growth of 20–25 per cent over the next three
years. Firms that had grown fastest tended to anticipate
some modest reduction in sales growth in the future,
while the laggards believed they would catch up (figures
5.12–5.13, annex table 5.12). Looking at investor origin,
the South African firms as a whole were particularly
optimistic about opportunities in SSA, anticipating
average annual sales growth rate of 45 per cent for the
next three years and Asia was second with 32 per cent
(figure 5.14, annex table 5.12).
Figure 5.12 Annual sales growth (past and future)
by market orientation
Percentage annual sales growth
28%
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
Last year's sales growth
Expected future annual sales
growth for the next 3 years
15.5%
23.3%
14.9%
20.9%
26.4%
Local Regional Global
668 cases 146 cases 130 cases
Figure 5.13 Annual sales growth (past and future)
by organizational structure
Percentage annual sales growth
28%
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
0%
15.1%
24.8%
22.1%
15.0%
23.5%
Last year's sales growth
Expected future annual sales
growth for the next 3 years
22.3% 22.1%
L-TNC S-TNC FE
261 cases 235 cases 455 cases
60 Africa Foreign Investor Survey 2005