final program.qxd - Parallels Plesk Panel

PL 1
Bird Flu and Human Risk
Alice Croisier, WHO (Geneva, Switzerland)
Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus circulation in avian populations is posing a threat to human
health. Beyond the virus's ability to cause human infection and illness, the greater threat
for humanity relates to the risk for the virus to become more adapted to humans or to
re-assort with another influenza A virus sub-type. Should this happen it could result in a
new influenza pandemic. H5N1 is not the only influenza virus sub-type currently posing a
threat for a new emergent pandemic strain, but, it is the most visible and likely at this time.
It's geographical spread and range of species affected is unprecedented offering
countless opportunities for virus modification.
The pathogenicity of a new pandemic influenza A virus can not be predicted, nor can the
timing of the pandemic, the speed of its spread or the populations which will be at most
risk of serious illnesses or death.
The health impact of a pandemic could range from relatively mild to severe. We can not
ignore the possibility of another pandemic like that in 1918 with an estimated global
human mortality of approximately 40-50 million. Regardless of ultimate severity, a
pandemic vaccine probably will not be available in sufficient quantity in the early stages of
a pandemic and antiviral drugs will be limited in supply. Mitigation of morbidity and
mortality during the first wave of the next influenza pandemic therefore will substantially
depend upon the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions.
Pandemic preparedness begins with resource planning to facilitate optimal care for
patients, case management, communication to the general public and preparations to limit
hospital and community-based transmission. Recommendations may also be made to
mitigate the socio-economical impact of the pandemic.
There is much to learn about the determinants of spread of a pandemic and on specific
interventions which are likely to mitigate it's impact. Further studies would help prepare for
future pandemics.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) and other future pandemic threats will not go
away but effective preparations can make a significant difference.
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