Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies

Exhibit 5C-2
2001-2008 Historical Trend in CCR Beneficial Use Quantity (Short Tons*)
A. Actual Data: Year CCR Beneficial Use** % change % Use Linear Regression Output
(tons per year)
Actual = 2001 37,119,321 R-Squared 0.943
Actual = 2002 45,523,256 +22.6% 35% Standard Error 1,859,123
Actual = 2003 46,384,405 +1.9% 38% Observations 8
Actual = 2004 49,089,818 +5.8% 40% Coefficients
Actual = 2005 49,612,541 +1.1% 40% Intercept 39,784,058
Actual = 2006 54,203,170 +9.3% 43% X Variable 2,867,597
Actual = 2007 56,039,005 +3.4% 43%
Actual = 2008 60,593,660 +8.1% 46%
Notes:
* Tons source: Amer. Coal Ash Assoc http://acaa.affiniscape.com/displaycommon.cfm?an=1&subarticlenbr=3
** “Beneficial use” data in this Exhibit correspond to the 15 categories defined in the ACAA dataset which do not match the
definition (examples) of CCR beneficial uses in EPA-ORCR’s CCR proposed rule.
B. Trendline: Year Regression best fit % change
Trendline = 2001 39,784,100
Trendline = 2002 42,651,700 7.2%
Trendline = 2003 45,519,300 6.7%
Trendline = 2004 48,386,800 6.3%
Trendline = 2005 51,254,400 5.9%
Trendline = 2006 54,122,000 5.6%
Trendline = 2007 56,989,600 5.3%
Trendline = 2008 59,857,200 5.0%
Projection = 2009 62,724,800 4.8%
Annual average growth rate = 5.2%
Annual CCR Beneficial Use Tons
ACAA actual data
Trendline
65,000,000
60,000,000
55,000,000
50,000,000
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
152