Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies

Exhibit 4I
Adjustment of Dry Conversion Cost Estimate to Account for Utility Industry's Voluntary Impoundment Phase-Out Trend
A1 A2 A3 A4 B1 B2 B3 B4
A. Cost of Dry Conversion Trend Without CCR Rule B. Dry Conversion Cost if Mandated by CCR Rule
Incremental added
Incremental added
cost year-by-year ---- Mandatory cost year-by-year ----
Projected Year-by-year regression trendline Regression trendline year-by-year mandatory Mandatory
trendline RIA 50-year End Regression trendline incremental dry conversion dry conversion Mandatory wet incremental dry conversion dry conversion
year period of of wet disposal phaseout conversion to dry cost projection cumulative cost phaseout within conversion to dry cost projection cumulative cost
count analysis year (million tons/year) (million tons/year) without CCR rule without CCR rule 5-years of rule (million tons/year) with CCR rule with CCR rule
1 2005 22.5 Base year Base year Base year 22.5 Base year Base year Base year
2 2006 22.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $22,122,377 22.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $22,122,377
3 2007 21.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $44,244,754 21.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $44,244,754
4 2008 21.7 0.3 $22,122,377 $66,367,131 21.7 0.3 $22,122,377 $66,367,131
5 2009 21.4 0.3 $22,122,377 $88,489,508 21.4 0.3 $22,122,377 $88,489,508
6 2010 21.1 0.3 $22,122,377 $110,611,885 21.1 0.3 $22,122,377 $110,611,885
7 2011 20.8 0.3 $22,122,377 $132,734,262 20.8 0.3 $22,122,377 $132,734,262
8 1 2012 20.5 0.3 $22,122,377 $154,856,640 20.5 0.3 $22,122,377 $154,856,640
9 2 2013 20.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $176,979,017 20.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $176,979,017
10 3 2014 19.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $199,101,394 19.9 4.0 $298,704,663 $475,683,680
11 4 2015 19.6 0.3 $22,122,377 $221,223,771 19.6 4.0 $298,704,663 $774,388,344
12 5 2016 19.3 0.3 $22,122,377 $243,346,148 19.3 4.0 $298,704,663 $1,073,093,007
13 6 2017 19.0 0.3 $22,122,377 $265,468,525 19.0 4.0 $298,704,663 $1,371,797,671
14 7 2018 18.7 0.3 $22,122,377 $287,590,902 18.7 4.0 $298,704,663 $1,670,502,334
15 8 2019 18.4 0.3 $22,122,377 $309,713,279 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
16 9 2020 18.1 0.3 $22,122,377 $331,835,656 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
17 10 2021 17.8 0.3 $22,122,377 $353,958,033 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
18 11 2022 17.5 0.3 $22,122,377 $376,080,410 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
19 12 2023 17.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $398,202,787 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
20 13 2024 16.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $420,325,164 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
21 14 2025 16.6 0.3 $22,122,377 $442,447,541 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
22 15 2026 16.4 0.3 $22,122,377 $464,569,919 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
23 16 2027 16.1 0.3 $22,122,377 $486,692,296 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
24 17 2028 15.8 0.3 $22,122,377 $508,814,673 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
25 18 2029 15.5 0.3 $22,122,377 $530,937,050 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
26 19 2030 15.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $553,059,427 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
27 20 2031 14.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $575,181,804 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
28 21 2032 14.6 0.3 $22,122,377 $597,304,181 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
29 22 2033 14.3 0.3 $22,122,377 $619,426,558 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
30 23 2034 14.0 0.3 $22,122,377 $641,548,935 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
31 24 2035 13.7 0.3 $22,122,377 $663,671,312 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
32 25 2036 13.4 0.3 $22,122,377 $685,793,689 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
33 26 2037 13.1 0.3 $22,122,377 $707,916,066 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
34 27 2038 12.8 0.3 $22,122,377 $730,038,443 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
35 28 2039 12.5 0.3 $22,122,377 $752,160,821 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
36 29 2040 12.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $774,283,198 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
37 30 2041 11.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $796,405,575 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
38 31 2042 11.6 0.3 $22,122,377 $818,527,952 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
39 32 2043 11.3 0.3 $22,122,377 $840,650,329 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
40 33 2044 11.0 0.3 $22,122,377 $862,772,706 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
41 34 2045 10.8 0.3 $22,122,377 $884,895,083 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
42 35 2046 10.5 0.3 $22,122,377 $907,017,460 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
43 36 2047 10.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $929,139,837 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
44 37 2048 9.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $951,262,214 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
45 38 2049 9.6 0.3 $22,122,377 $973,384,591 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
46 39 2050 9.3 0.3 $22,122,377 $995,506,968 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
47 40 2051 9.0 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,017,629,345 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
48 41 2052 8.7 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,039,751,722 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
49 42 2053 8.4 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,061,874,100 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
50 43 2054 8.1 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,083,996,477 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
51 44 2055 7.8 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,106,118,854 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
52 45 2056 7.5 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,128,241,231 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
53 46 2057 7.2 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,150,363,608 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
54 47 2058 6.9 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,172,485,985 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
55 48 2059 6.6 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,194,608,362 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
56 49 2060 6.3 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,216,730,739 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
57 50 2061 6.0 0.3 $22,122,377 $1,238,853,116 0 0 $0 $1,670,502,334
Summary Relative to 2005 Column total = 16.5 $1,238,853,116 $35,307,313,810 22.2 $1,670,502,334 $77,993,470,971
(56 years after base year) Average annual = $630,487,747 $1,392,740,553
Present value (PV) = $4,321,186,852 $12,375,281,254
Annualized PV value = $309,483,860 $886,318,954
Summary Relative to 2010 Column total = 15.3 $1,150,363,608 $35,086,090,039 21.1 $1,582,012,826 $77,772,247,201
(52 years after update) Average annual = $674,732,501 $1,495,620,138
Present value (PV) = $5,426,935,463 $15,984,210,270
Annualized PV value = $391,493,777 $1,153,085,179
Summary Relative to 2012 Column total = 14.7 $1,106,118,854 $34,842,743,891 20.5 $1,537,768,072 $77,528,901,053
(50 years same as RIA) Average annual = $696,854,878 $1,550,578,021
Present value (PV) = $5,962,000,000 $18,049,000,000
Annualized PV value = $432,005,623 $1,307,827,824
Discount rate = 7% Added Cost for Conversion to Dry Disposal Under the CCR Proposed Rule Compared to Conversion Trend Without Rule:
Present value (PV) = $12,087,000,000
Annualized PV value = $875,822,201
Percent reduction compared to October 2009 draft RIA dry conversion cost estimate:
October 2009 draft RIA cost estimate = $23,200,000,000
Reduction in cost estimate compared to RIA = -48%
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