Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies

Exhibit 5C-15
Two Alternative Scenarios of Projected Future CCR Beneficial Use 2012-2061
(Short Tons)
Year
Scenario #1: Scenario #2:
Scenario #1: Scenario #2:
Year
w/out Stigma w/Stigma
w/out Stigma w/Stigma
2012 71,527,755 33,924,749 2037 128,297,364 82,753,160
2013 75,999,399 36,206,995 2038 129,708,417 84,404,170
2014 80,338,539 38,457,590 2039 131,105,658 86,035,997
2015 84,549,013 40,677,131 2040 132,489,375 87,649,041
2016 88,634,566 42,866,206 2041 133,859,848 89,243,690
2017 92,598,855 45,025,395 2042 135,217,354 90,820,330
2018 96,445,450 47,155,270 2043 136,562,164 92,379,337
2019 100,177,835 49,256,395 2044 137,894,545 93,921,081
2020 101,892,669 51,329,323 2045 139,214,759 95,445,925
2021 103,587,595 53,374,602 2046 140,523,061 96,954,227
2022 105,263,001 55,392,770 2047 141,819,704 98,446,334
2023 106,919,270 57,384,357 2048 143,104,936 99,922,592
2024 108,556,775 59,349,885 2049 144,378,997 101,383,338
2025 110,175,889 61,289,868 2050 145,642,128 102,828,900
2026 111,776,973 63,204,812 2051 146,894,561 104,259,605
2027 113,360,387 65,095,213 2052 148,136,525 105,675,770
2028 114,926,484 66,961,561 2053 149,368,245 107,077,707
2029 116,475,608 68,804,337 2054 150,589,942 108,465,723
2030 118,008,102 70,624,016 2055 151,801,831 109,840,117
2031 119,524,301 72,421,062 2056 153,004,125 111,201,184
2032 121,024,534 74,195,934 2057 154,197,031 112,549,212
2033 122,509,126 75,949,081 2058 155,380,753 113,884,485
2034 123,978,394 77,680,946 2059 156,555,491 115,207,281
2035 125,432,652 79,391,964 2060 157,721,441 116,517,870
2036 126,872,208 81,082,562 2061 158,878,794 117,816,520
Step 7: Estimate Potential Induced Effects on Future Annual Tonnages of CCR Beneficial Use
Exhibit 5C-16 below shows beneficial use projected under Subtitle C. Beneficial use under the increasing disposal cost scenario would lead to
an increase of 28% above the baseline estimate. However, as the market becomes more and more saturated, it will likely become harder to
increase beneficial use. Thus, the increase is constrained to 28% of the remaining unused CCR. The elasticity column represents the effective
percent change in quantity for each percent change in price once this constraint has been accounted for. While the elasticity is assumed to
initially be 1.0, the effect of market saturation drives that elasticity towards zero over time as seen below.
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