Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies

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Exhibit 4F PRO P O SE D R ULE OC T 2009 R IA "O P TIO N 1" (RCRA S ubtile C 3004x) All Im poundm ents M ust C onvert to D ry A sh Sys te m in 5 -Y ea rs PRO PO SED R ULE OC T 2009 R IA "O PTIO N 1" (RCRA Subtile C 3004x) All Im poundm ents M ust C onvert to D ry Ash Sys te m in 5 -Y ea rs Capital cost for conversion to dry (non-discounted lump-sum) = $22,984,000,000 Capital cost for conversion to dry (non-discounted lump-sum) = $22,984,000,000 Added annual O &M for dry com pared to wet (non-discounted) = $15,800,000 Added annual O &M for dry com pared to wet (non-discounted) = $15,800,000 A B 5-Year pha se -out A B 5-Year pha se -out Co unt o f existing 08 Oct 2 009 dra ft RIA Co unt o f existing 08 Oct 2 009 dra ft RIA electric u tility sim ple estim ate if electric u tility sim ple estim ate if plants w ith lum p-su m capital cost plants with lum p-su m capital cost Row Year impoundments in 1st year of final rule Row Year impoundments in 1st year of final rule 1 201 2 158 $22,98 4,0 00,000 1 201 2 158 $22,98 4,0 00,000 2 201 3 158 $0 2 201 3 158 $0 3 201 4 158 $0 3 201 4 158 $0 4 201 5 158 $0 4 201 5 158 $0 5 201 6 158 $0 5 201 6 158 $0 6 201 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 6 201 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 7 201 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 7 201 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 8 201 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 8 201 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 9 202 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 9 202 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 10 202 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 10 202 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 11 202 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 11 202 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 12 202 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 12 202 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 13 202 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 13 202 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 14 202 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 14 202 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 15 202 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 15 202 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 16 202 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 16 202 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 17 202 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 17 202 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 18 202 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 18 202 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 19 203 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 19 203 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 20 203 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 20 203 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 21 203 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 21 203 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 22 203 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 22 203 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 23 203 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 23 203 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 24 203 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 24 203 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 25 203 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 25 203 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 26 203 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 26 203 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 27 203 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 27 203 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 28 203 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 28 203 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 29 204 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 29 204 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 30 204 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 30 204 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 31 204 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 31 204 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 32 204 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 32 204 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 33 204 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 33 204 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 34 204 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 34 204 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 35 204 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 35 204 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 36 204 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 36 204 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 37 204 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 37 204 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 38 204 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 38 204 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 39 205 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 39 205 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 40 205 1 158 $22,98 4,0 00,000 40 205 1 158 $22,98 4,0 00,000 41 205 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 41 205 2 158 $1 5,8 00,000 42 205 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 42 205 3 158 $1 5,8 00,000 43 205 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 43 205 4 158 $1 5,8 00,000 44 205 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 44 205 5 158 $1 5,8 00,000 45 205 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 45 205 6 158 $1 5,8 00,000 46 205 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 46 205 7 158 $1 5,8 00,000 47 205 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 47 205 8 158 $1 5,8 00,000 48 205 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 48 205 9 158 $1 5,8 00,000 49 206 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 49 206 0 158 $1 5,8 00,000 50 206 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 50 206 1 158 $1 5,8 00,000 Non-discounted total cost = $46,663,000,000 Non-discounted total cost = $46,663,000,000 Non-discounted average cost = $933,000,000 Non-discounted average cost = $933,000,000 Present value cost (@ 7% disc.rate) = $23,167 ,00 0,000 Present value cost (@ 7% disc.rate) = $23,167 ,00 0,000 Average annualized cost (@ 7% disc.rate) = $1 ,6 79,000,000 Average annualized cost (@ 7% disc.rate) = $1 ,6 79,000,000 Discoun t rate = 7% Discoun t rate = 7% A nn ual eng ineering + ancillary co sts for R IA "Option 1" S ubtitle C = $595 ,0 00,000 Total annualized cost for RIA "Option 1" Subtitle C = $2,274 ,00 0,000 Present value cost (@ 7% disc.rate) = $31,383 ,00 0,000 A nn ual eng ineering + ancillary co sts for RIA "Option 1" S ubtitle C = $595 ,0 00,000 Total annualized cost for RIA "Option 1" Subtitle C = $2,274 ,00 0,000 Present value cost (@ 7% disc.rate) = $31,383 ,00 0,000 92
o Recent Trend in CCR Impoundment Phase-Outs Since formulating the initial cost estimate above, EPA obtained new information which indicates that many electric utility plants have already closed or are planning to close CCR impoundments and convert to dry disposal (i.e., landfill disposal and/or sell and transport dry CCR offsite for beneficial use by other industries) for reasons independent of the CCR proposed rule. As displayed below in Exhibit 4G, EIA’s historical data 98 for the electric utility industry indicate that between 1996 and 2005, the tonnage of CCR disposed in impoundments has decreased by 10% from 25.2 to 22.5 million tons despite total CCR generation at electric utility plants increasing 24% over that same period from 102.0 million tons (1996) to 126.3 million tons (2005). This represents an average annual CCR impoundment phase-out rate of 1.1% per year. 1996 2005 10-year decrease Tonnage wet disposal 25.188 million 22.537 million 10% Percentage of generation 25% of CCR 18% of CCR 7% Exhibit 4G Documentation of Recent Trend (1996-2005) In Switching From Wet to Dry CCR Disposal in the US Electric Utility Industry Coal Ash, FGD Waste - EIA Data Utility Landfill (Dry) Utility Disposal Ponds (Wet) Thousand Short Tons 1996 2005 Utility On Site Utility Disposal On Site Use and Off Site Landfill Ponds Use and Storage Sold Disposal Total % (Dry) (Wet) Storage Sold Off Site Disposal Total % Fly Ash 21,450 15,710 2,446 12,091 8,110 59,806 59% 22,557 15,322 4,645 21,211 10,626 74,360 59% Bottom Ash 5,340 4,973 1,968 4,322 2,537 19,140 19% 6,109 4,374 3,553 5,767 2,177 21,981 17% Sludge 12,938 3,484 1,011 236 987 18,655 18% 9,592 1,886 467 409 2,507 14,861 12% Gypsum 502 987 379 1,190 88 3,146 3% 55 872 372 8,513 783 10,595 8% Other 171 35 0 691 305 1,202 1% 227 83 116 3,749 315 4,490 4% Total 40,401 25,188 5,804 18,529 12,028 101,950 100% 38,539 22,537 9,153 39,650 16,407 126,286 100% Utility Landfill (Dry) Utility Disposal Ponds (Wet) % Share of Total 1996 2005 Utility On Site Utility Disposal On Site Use and Off Site Landfill Ponds Use and Storage Sold Disposal Total (Dry) (Wet) Storage Sold Off Site Disposal Fly Ash 36% 26% 4% 20% 14% 100% 30% 21% 6% 29% 14% 100% Bottom Ash 28% 26% 10% 23% 13% 100% 28% 20% 16% 26% 10% 100% Sludge 69% 19% 5% 1% 5% 100% 65% 13% 3% 3% 17% 100% Gypsum 16% 31% 12% 38% 3% 100% 1% 8% 4% 80% 7% 100% Other 14% 3% 0% 57% 25% 100% 5% 2% 3% 84% 7% 100% Total 40% 25% 6% 18% 12% 100% 31% 18% 7% 31% 13% 100% Total 98 Source: US Department of Energy EIA F767_PLANT database at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia767.html 93
Page 1 and 2:
Regulatory Impact Analysis For EPA
Page 3 and 4:
Table of Contents Executive Summary
Page 5 and 6:
Executive Summary This RIA evaluate
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impoundments, the relative number t
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Summary Exhibit 3 Induced Effect of
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Summary Exhibit 6 Comparison of Reg
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Chapter 1 Problem Statement: The Ne
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Bevill Amendments 10 which exempted
Page 17 and 18:
Just three weeks after the TVA’s
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2. Waste & Environmental Management
Page 21 and 22:
This RIA did not discover similar d
Page 23 and 24:
Exhibit 2A Identity of Other Indust
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Require review of surface impoundme
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Chapter 3 Baseline CCR Management i
Page 29 and 30:
Exhibit 3C below, these 495 coal-fi
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Exhibit 3C State-by-State Electric
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3B. Types of CCR Disposal Units Es
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92 plants Offsite landfill fly ash
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electric utility plants in the data
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Exhibit 3E Annual CCR Disposition f
Page 41 and 42: 3D. Size of CCR Disposal Units The
Page 43 and 44: costs for each type of disposal (no
Page 45 and 46: annual sampling for surface impound
Page 47 and 48: o Of the 25 state regulations revie
Page 49 and 50: Exhibit 3I Baseline Compliance with
Page 51 and 52: Baseline CCR Disposal Cost Estimati
Page 53 and 54: Before-tax costs: 50-year period:
Page 55 and 56: Baseline “Engineering Control”
Page 57 and 58: assume that the same water trucks w
Page 59 and 60: memorandum to George Garland, EPA,
Page 61 and 62: Exhibit 3K Summary of Industry & St
Page 63 and 64: ($80,000 per year average Subtitle
Page 65 and 66: Validity Check of Baseline Cost Est
Page 67 and 68: Chapter 4 Estimated Cost for RCRA R
Page 69 and 70: B. Ancillary costs for CCR disposal
Page 71 and 72: location restriction mitigation inv
Page 73 and 74: o Impoundment berms: The average su
Page 75 and 76: State government average cost per w
Page 77 and 78: corrective action remedies usually
Page 79 and 80: Exhibit 4A Two Case Studies: Possib
Page 81 and 82: Biennial Report”). According to E
Page 83 and 84: 4B.3 Land Disposal Restriction Cost
Page 85 and 86: The TVA cost study did not estimate
Page 87 and 88: Using the EPA ORCR 2009$ updated un
Page 89 and 90: Exhibit 4D Comparison of Annual O&M
Page 91: Exhibit 4E Summary of Wet Conversio
Page 95 and 96: from coal to other fuels such as na
Page 97 and 98: o Result of Dry Conversion Cost Upd
Page 99 and 100: As summarized below in comparison t
Page 101 and 102: 17% phase-out trend suggest the fut
Page 103 and 104: RIA 50- ye ar period Actual company
Page 105 and 106: 4C. State-by-State Distribution of
Page 107 and 108: 4D. Cost Estimation Uncertainty Thi
Page 109 and 110: Exhibit 4N Cost Estimation Uncertai
Page 111 and 112: In contrast to the Exhibit 5A list
Page 113 and 114: Step 2. Determine Potentially Affec
Page 115 and 116: Step 3. Apply EPA-ORCR 2009 Arsenic
Page 117 and 118: RISKn WELLREACH iRISK EDn N Where
Page 119 and 120: The constant slope allowed estimati
Page 121 and 122: Step 6. Monetize Future Avoided Can
Page 123 and 124: controls like surface-impoundment p
Page 125 and 126: Finally, for Subtitle C, there woul
Page 127 and 128: Exhibit 5A-12 Percentile of Cleanup
Page 129 and 130: Exhibit 5A-16 Per-Site Groundwater
Page 131 and 132: Multiple CCR disposal units at a si
Page 133 and 134: 5B. Benefit of Preventing Future CC
Page 135 and 136: As displayed below in Exhibit 5B-2,
Page 137 and 138: Where: = Observed arrival rate (0.
Page 139 and 140: Step 3. Calculate Future Impoundmen
Page 141 and 142: some surface impoundment regulation
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Exhibit 5B-8 Poisson Distribution (
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With these new distributions, EPA p
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Exhibit 5B-12 Scenario #2: Cleanup
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5C. Induced Effect of RCRA Regulati
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Exhibit 5C-1 Estimate of Annual Mat
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Exhibit 5C-3 below presents a 2004
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To avoid double-counting of economi
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5C2. Potential Effect of RCRA Regul
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Others take a different view on how
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Exhibit 5C-7 EPA Extrapolation of E
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Based on the most recent CCR benefi
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Beneficial uses of CCR have been co
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Exhibit 5C-12 Beneficial Use Trend
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Increases due to increased disposal
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“Using [coal] fly ash in building
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Exhibit 5C-14 Historical Annual Per
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Hypothetical expansion of CCR custo
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Step 6: Apply Estimated Induced Eff
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Exhibit 5C-16 Scenario #1: Increase
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Exhibit 5C-17 Scenario #2: Decrease
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Exhibit 5C-18 Beneficial Use Trends
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Exhibit 5C-19 Scenario #1: Benefit
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Exhibit 5C-21 Scenario #2: Cost of
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Step 10: Quantify Potential Capacit
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Chapter 6 Comparison of Regulatory
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Exhibit 6B Comparison of Regulatory
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Exhibit 6D Comparison of Regulatory
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Exhibit 6F Comparison of Regulatory
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Exhibit 6F Scaling Factors (Extrapo
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Exhibit 6G Estimate of Subtitle D (
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detect contamination early and thus
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Step 1: Downloaded the annual milli
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Exhibit 7A State by State Breakout
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Small government: Based on the RFA/
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Step 3 & Step 4: Determine and docu
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Factor #2 of 2: The small business
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how much they use or indeed how muc
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Collection of Minority & Low-Income
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Comparison of Minority & Low-Income
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Exhibit 7G Minority and Low-Income
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Exhibit 7H Comparison of Minority a
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o The state-by-state range of minor
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CCR fraction #3: CCR fraction #4:
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7D. Child Population Statistics (Ex
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Comparison of Child Populations Liv
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Count of plant unique ZCTAds Exhibi
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Exhibit 7K Comparison of Child Popu
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7E. Unfunded Mandates (UMRA) & Fede
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Findings for UMRA Impact and Federa
Page 241 and 242:
Exhibit 7M List of 74 Coal-Fired El
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Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies

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