Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies
Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies
Analysis - The Institute for Southern Studies
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y 1x<br />
Where:<br />
y = Tons coal burned at time = x<br />
0 = Tons coal burned at time = 0<br />
1 = Additional tons coal burned each year, on average<br />
x = Time elapsed (years)<br />
0<br />
<br />
Running the regression, calculated a 0 (or intercept) of 1,001,902,312; a 1 (or slope) of 6,082,277; and an R-squared (or fit) of 87%. This<br />
regression was used to extrapolate the EIA projection out to the year 2061 as displayed in Exhibit 5C-7 and as graphed in Exhibit 5C-8 below.<br />
Table 5C-6<br />
Coal Burned Forecast Data From EIA<br />
Year<br />
Y =<br />
X = Time<br />
EIA Projection<br />
Elapsed<br />
(Tons Coal Burned)<br />
2007 0 1,045,140,137<br />
2008 1 1,041,599,976<br />
2009 2 951,846,252<br />
2010 3 970,887,207<br />
2011 4 1,025,782,227<br />
2012 5 1,049,056,519<br />
2013 6 1,057,912,842<br />
2014 7 1,069,233,154<br />
2015 8 1,044,051,880<br />
2016 9 1,053,579,224<br />
2017 10 1,052,420,654<br />
2018 11 1,062,561,646<br />
2019 12 1,071,914,062<br />
2020 13 1,073,440,308<br />
2021 14 1,090,903,931<br />
2022 15 1,098,539,673<br />
2023 16 1,102,742,065<br />
2024 17 1,096,057,129<br />
2025 18 1,115,724,243<br />
2026 19 1,111,202,026<br />
2027 20 1,121,313,477<br />
2028 21 1,131,518,677<br />
2029 22 1,128,823,120<br />
2030 23 1,146,826,782<br />
2031 24 1,149,894,043<br />
2032 25 1,160,750,977<br />
2033 26 1,156,721,802<br />
2034 27 1,161,479,736<br />
2035 28 1,182,647,705<br />
160
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