Exhibit 5C-8 Extending EIA Projections 1,400,000,000 1,350,000,000 1,300,000,000 1,250,000,000 Coal Burned (Tons) 1,200,000,000 1,150,000,000 1,100,000,000 1,050,000,000 1,000,000,000 950,000,000 900,000,000 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 Year EIA Projection EPA Regression 162
Based on the most recent CCR beneficial use data from ACAA, EPA estimated the average tons of CCR generated <strong>for</strong> every ton of coal burned by electric utility plants. For this calculation, this RIA only used the most recent data year (2008) to estimate a conversion rate because over time, the quantities of CCR generated per ton of coal combusted has steadily increased. Thus an average of recent years would not reflect this trend. <strong>The</strong> steady increase over time is due to tightening of industrial air pollution regulations. This trend would likely continue in the future as further facilities undergo new source review, or implement new Clean Air Act requirements under upcoming EPA rules like the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR). Thus, the future annual tonnages of CCR estimated in this RIA are likely under-estimates. Dividing the 2008 tons of CCR generated (136 million tons) by the 2008 tons of coal burned by the electric power sector (1,042 million tons), EPA produced a CCR-to-coal relationship factor of 0.131. Applying this factor to the extrapolated coal consumption projection produced the future CCR generation scenario displayed below in Exhibit 5C-9. Exhibit 5C-9 Projected Future Annual CCR Generation by the Electric Utility Industry: Scenario Based on Extrapolation of EIA’s Projection of Electric Power Sector Coal Burned 2007-2035 (Short Tons) Year CCR Year CCR Year CCR Year CCR 2012 134,764,862 2025 145,087,115 2038 155,409,369 2051 165,731,622 2013 135,558,881 2026 145,881,135 2039 156,203,388 2052 166,525,642 2014 136,352,901 2027 146,675,154 2040 156,997,408 2053 167,319,661 2015 137,146,920 2028 147,469,174 2041 157,791,427 2054 168,113,681 2016 137,940,940 2029 148,263,193 2042 158,585,447 2055 168,907,700 2017 138,734,959 2030 149,057,213 2043 159,379,466 2056 169,701,720 2018 139,528,979 2031 149,851,232 2044 160,173,486 2057 170,495,739 2019 140,322,998 2032 150,645,252 2045 160,967,505 2058 171,289,759 2020 141,117,018 2033 151,439,271 2046 161,761,525 2059 172,083,778 2021 141,911,037 2034 152,233,291 2047 162,555,544 2060 172,877,798 2022 142,705,057 2035 153,027,310 2048 163,349,564 2061 173,671,817 2023 143,499,076 2036 153,821,330 2049 164,143,583 2024 144,293,096 2037 154,615,349 2050 164,937,603 Appendix K5 to this RIA presents alternative estimates of future CCR generation. <strong>The</strong>se estimates take into account the recent increasing trend in the ratio of tons CCR generated to the tons coal combustion. For example, in year 2035 the constant ratio projection above yields a value of 153 million tons CCR generated whereas the increasing ratio projection in Appendix K5 yields a value of 191 million tons of CCR generated. While the exact magnitude of such an increase is uncertain, there would be at least some increase as a result of increased air pollution controls. <strong>The</strong>se include future changes due to EPA’s New Source Review (NSR), EPA’s Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), and EPA’s Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR). 163
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