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Publishing in the knowledge economy The industry today CHAPTER 3 Drivers of the publishing industry 3.1 Main drivers There are two major drivers for the publishing market: advertising and consumer spending. Clearly there is a well-established relationship between these and the economic cycle. Advertising tends to expand as a proportion of gross value-added during periods of boom and contract as a proportion in times of recession. Corporate revenue and profitability is a driver of both advertising and of purchases of business to business media, including magazines and directories, business information, and spending on conferences and exhibitions. As profits can take some time to recover from recessions, this impacts on the timing of publishing revenue recovery. Consumer spending is obviously related both to measurable factors, such as economic growth and employment levels, and to ‘consumer confidence’, which can be enhanced or damaged by many other factors. As well as cyclical factors, the share of both advertising revenue and consumer spending that will be achieved by the publishing industry are also subject to more structural changes. Publishing competes with other vehicles for advertising, from television to bus shelters, at least in terms of the attention of viewers/ readers. Advertisers may perceive that different forms of advertising are more cost-effective, and switch to those. Consumer use of media products is affected by the time at their disposal as well as their incomes, and the proliferation of demands on their time and money is an issue that will recur in this report. As media is a discretionary purchase, fashion and generational change are also crucial. Business to business publishing and business information is also constantly faced with opportunities and threats arising from the shifting fortunes of the industries it serves, the latest example being the headlong expansion of telecommunications and the subsequent ‘correction’. Time spent on media use will be examined later in the report. Drivers of particular subsectors, such as education spending (e.g. textbooks and journals), will also be examined in the context of discussion of issues affecting these sub-sectors. 3.2 Advertising trends The charts opposite depict the trend in advertising spending since 1980, first in constant 1995 prices (Figure 3.1) and then as a percentage of gross value-added (Figure 3.2). They clearly show the broad upward trend in spending, both absolutely and as a proportion of GVA, broken only by the effects of the recession in the early 1990s. Indications for 2001 will be discussed separately. 3.2.1 The share of publishing Looking at the share of the press (i.e. magazines, newspapers and business and professional media, including directories) in total advertising spend (Figure 3.3), there is a significant decline since 1980, from around 60% to around 50%. Although television has put on about three percentage points, the more interesting gains are those made by direct mail and radio, since they represent a step change in share, while television has hovered around 25- 27% for many years. The Internet makes a late appearance, and clearly some element of that will be accruing to the owners of the press, although it amounted to less than £200m in 2000, it outstripped cinema. However, it is important to stress that although the share of the press has declined, the total revenues accruing to the press from advertising have grown strongly in the same period. 10
The industry today Publishing in the knowledge economy Figure 3.1 Advertising expenditure in real terms Figure 3.3 Share of advertising spend by medium 10000 8000 100 • Internet • Cinema • Radio Outdoor & transport • DM 6000 80 4000 60 2000 40 20 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 1980 1982 1984 • TV • Total press 2000 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Source The Advertising Association Source The Advertising Association Figure 3.2 Advertising expenditure as a percentage of gross value-added 2.5 Figure 3.4 Total press advertising 10000, £m 2.0 8000 1.5 1.0 6000 0.5 4000 1986 1987 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2000 Source The Advertising Association 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Source The Advertising Association > 11
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