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Publishing in the knowledge economy
The industry today
CHAPTER
14
Future scenarios
14.1 Introduction
The scenarios we have chosen to use are
designed to describe several potential future
circumstances within which the publishing
industry will be expected to operate. We also
hypothesize about the industry’s reaction to
these circumstances. This is done by describing
the premise, the implications for the industry
and finally what the outcome for publishing
industry is likely to be should the scenario
occur. These scenarios are built using the basic
drivers of the industry, the foregoing evidence
and the trends that we have presented earlier
providing a realistic picture.
The shift towards a knowledge economy is
not a single change but a complex process that
will continue to unfold and create opportunities
and challenges as it does so. Publishers will
have to adapt to an environment that demands
continual evolution of products, enabling
technologies, skills and business models.
These scenarios are a simplified, and by no
means exhaustive, representation of what will in
practice be a highly complex set of interacting
trends and processes.
14.2 Main drivers affecting the scenarios
In developing the scenarios we have considered
the most significant drivers that can impact the
business of publishing in the coming five to 10
years. The drivers influence the behaviour of
people and companies in the purchasing of
publishing product and their attitudes towards
using content or receiving advertising.
These drivers form the parameters which can
be varied in creating differing scenarios. We
have grouped the drivers into three main areas:
lifestyle; work; technology and economy.
14.2.1 Lifestyle
Drivers around lifestyle include:
• The competition for consumers time and
money
• The amount of time available for leisure
activities
• The requirements for easier access to
information
• The population demographics shifting towards
an ageing population
• The time spent shopping
• The effects of the desire for a higher “quality of
life”
• The effects of less time travelling to work
• The desire to better educate children
14.2.2 Work
Drivers around the working environment
include:
• More distant/home working
• Ability to access information from anywhere
at any time
• Better integration of customer information with
business information
• Faster decision making based on better
information available
• More mobility of workforce
• More international workforce as employment
laws are relaxed further and EU expands
14.2.3 Technology
Drivers around technology include:
• The adoption by the public of new network
services such as broadband, wireless and
digital television
• The adoption by publishers of technology to
improve current business processes
• The proliferation of connectivity to the Internet
• The level of comfort of people in working with
technology
• The success of promised technology in
delivering e-business functionality
• The ability of customer companies to integrate
publisher’s content into employee’s workflow
14.2.4 Economy
Economic drivers include:
• The growth of the economy
• The purchasing power of the consumer
• The increase in disposable income for
spending on publishers’ products
• The impact of the transport infrastructure
• The impact of the tax regime
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