Publishing in the Knowledge Economy - DTI Home Page

Publishing in the knowledge economy
The industry today
defending advertising in the printed version.
In the print environment, some of our
interviewees argued that the Metro free dailies
in a number of UK cities have a greater appeal
to young people who do not normally read a
paper, indicating perhaps that digital media
are not the only vehicles for tackling the
generation divide.
Although book publishers have enjoyed rising
sales, they too are concerned that younger age
groups may be losing the reading habit. More
integrated research on reading habits and
motivations across the different sectors might
produce results that would be illuminating for
all of them.
3.6 Other factors affecting publishing
3.6.1 Internet connectivity
Figures 3.14, 3.15 and 3.16 show contrasting
scenario-based forecasts for Internet
connectivity.
Slowing proliferation of Internet connectivity
Take up of the Internet at home is an important
factor driving and reflecting changes in
consumer lifestyles. Data for Figure 3.14 is
taken from The Office of National Statistics’
quarterly survey of households accessing the
Internet from their home computer. Over the last
year, the rapid quarter-on-quarter increases
previously seen have tailed off.
The fitted curve continues this slowing of
household penetration continuing into the next
two years, with the total barely rising above
40%. Predictions are shown for part years to
indicate the fit of the forecast with actual data.
Although low by some alternative forecasts,
currently only 45% of UK households possess
a computer, so the final figure for Internet
access still represents over 90% of potential.
This forecast is most likely to be true when:
• the digital divide continues
• PC sales continue to stall
• broadband availability is limited.
■ The networking of UK society has been slow
compared to the US (the ‘Atlantic’ divide) and
much slower in lower income groups
compared to households higher up the social
scale (the digital divide). The networked
society scenario is therefore more likely to
occur if the divides are diminished over the
next two to three years.
■ Figure 3.15 shows the percentage of UK
households accessing the Internet for different
income groups in 2000 and 2001 (Source:
Family Expenditure Survey). For reference
purposes the relatively even penetration of
telephone use across income groups is also
shown. Income decile 1 is the poorest 10% of
households and so on up to the richest 10%.
■ In the highest income groups, 75% of
households can access the Internet from
home. If households from all income groups
could do the same, then the networked
society would be that much closer.
■ In 2001, decile 8 achieved the penetration
rate achieved by decile 10 in 2000, decile 7
achieved the rate in 2001 set by decile 9 in
2000 and so on. Each year, each decile
achieves roughly the same level of
penetration of the decile two places higher
in the previous year.
■ Supposing up-take of the Internet has already
reached maturity in the top decile and
historical trends continue we would have:
• 57% penetration by end 2003
• 65% penetration by end 2004
• 71% penetration by end 2005
Closing the Atlantic gap
Figure 3.16 shows the percentage of UK and
US households able to access the Internet from
home. The US data (US Online, US Census
Bureau) is much more sporadic than the UK
data, but typically the penetration rates
achieved in the US are 18-24 months ahead
of the UK.
If the historical trends continue then home
Internet access would reach 53% in the UK
by 2003, 50% higher than its mid-2001 figure.
To sum up, the short history of the technology
makes home Internet use difficult to forecast. If
current trends continue, then Internet access at
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