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Publishing in the knowledge economy The industry today defending advertising in the printed version. In the print environment, some of our interviewees argued that the Metro free dailies in a number of UK cities have a greater appeal to young people who do not normally read a paper, indicating perhaps that digital media are not the only vehicles for tackling the generation divide. Although book publishers have enjoyed rising sales, they too are concerned that younger age groups may be losing the reading habit. More integrated research on reading habits and motivations across the different sectors might produce results that would be illuminating for all of them. 3.6 Other factors affecting publishing 3.6.1 Internet connectivity Figures 3.14, 3.15 and 3.16 show contrasting scenario-based forecasts for Internet connectivity. Slowing proliferation of Internet connectivity Take up of the Internet at home is an important factor driving and reflecting changes in consumer lifestyles. Data for Figure 3.14 is taken from The Office of National Statistics’ quarterly survey of households accessing the Internet from their home computer. Over the last year, the rapid quarter-on-quarter increases previously seen have tailed off. The fitted curve continues this slowing of household penetration continuing into the next two years, with the total barely rising above 40%. Predictions are shown for part years to indicate the fit of the forecast with actual data. Although low by some alternative forecasts, currently only 45% of UK households possess a computer, so the final figure for Internet access still represents over 90% of potential. This forecast is most likely to be true when: • the digital divide continues • PC sales continue to stall • broadband availability is limited. ■ The networking of UK society has been slow compared to the US (the ‘Atlantic’ divide) and much slower in lower income groups compared to households higher up the social scale (the digital divide). The networked society scenario is therefore more likely to occur if the divides are diminished over the next two to three years. ■ Figure 3.15 shows the percentage of UK households accessing the Internet for different income groups in 2000 and 2001 (Source: Family Expenditure Survey). For reference purposes the relatively even penetration of telephone use across income groups is also shown. Income decile 1 is the poorest 10% of households and so on up to the richest 10%. ■ In the highest income groups, 75% of households can access the Internet from home. If households from all income groups could do the same, then the networked society would be that much closer. ■ In 2001, decile 8 achieved the penetration rate achieved by decile 10 in 2000, decile 7 achieved the rate in 2001 set by decile 9 in 2000 and so on. Each year, each decile achieves roughly the same level of penetration of the decile two places higher in the previous year. ■ Supposing up-take of the Internet has already reached maturity in the top decile and historical trends continue we would have: • 57% penetration by end 2003 • 65% penetration by end 2004 • 71% penetration by end 2005 Closing the Atlantic gap Figure 3.16 shows the percentage of UK and US households able to access the Internet from home. The US data (US Online, US Census Bureau) is much more sporadic than the UK data, but typically the penetration rates achieved in the US are 18-24 months ahead of the UK. If the historical trends continue then home Internet access would reach 53% in the UK by 2003, 50% higher than its mid-2001 figure. To sum up, the short history of the technology makes home Internet use difficult to forecast. If current trends continue, then Internet access at 18
The industry today Publishing in the knowledge economy Figure 3.14 Online households forecast Figure 3.16 Closing the Atlantic gap 50%, UK households online • Online • Predicted 60%, Households online • UK • US 40 50 30 40 20 30 10 20 1998 2000 2002 2004 10 Source Pira, based on ONS data 1998 1999 2000 Figure 3.15 Closing the digital gap • Telephone 2001 • Internet 2001 • Internet 2000 100%, Households Sources ONS, US Bureau of the Census 80 60 40 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 Income decile 7 8 9 10 Source Family Expenditure Survey > 19
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