Florida Seaport System Plan - SeaCIP

Florida Seaport System Plan
4.2 Regional and Statewide Waterborne Activity
Forecasts
As part of the development of the Plan, activity data for all ports in Florida
were reviewed to determine a reasonable long-range state-level forecast for
Florida’s seaports, consistent with Florida’s forecast information for other
modes.
In developing a state-level forecast, the key challenge is that each port prepares
its own individual forecasts, according to its own methods and using its own
timelines. The only forecast that is developed in common by the ports is the
six-year projection in the Seaport Mission Plan. Therefore, the forecasting
methodology required several steps and sources:
• For the first six years, the Seaport Mission Plan projections through
2012/2013 were used. 3
• For subsequent years, each port’s individual Master Plan and/or traffic
forecast was utilized. Each port was contacted for this information and had
the opportunity to review how the information was applied in developing
the forecast.
• For any years through 2035 where information was not provided directly by
the ports, historic and forecast growth rates were translated into trendline
projections and applied through all forecast years. In cases where trendline
projections were negative, or exceeded statewide averages for the last seven
years, the projections were limited to this range.
• Because the Seaport Mission Plan projections and many of the port’s
Master Plans and individual forecasts were developed prior to the recession,
they do not reflect the current economic downturn, in which national and
statewide freight movement volumes have regressed somewhat.
Adjustments for the recession were therefore applied.
• The Seaport Mission Plan projections and the ports’ Master Plans and
individual forecasts reflect generally foreseeable opportunities, such as the
expansion of the Panama Canal and growth in Asia all-water container
trade. No adjustments were required for these effects.
• Finally, each port was contacted to review the final forecast product.
The regional and statewide projections were developed for use as a planning
tool, similar to other statewide modal system forecasts. Generally, ports plan
on a 5 to 10 year horizon. The waterborne industry is very dynamic and
3
Forecasts are now available for FY 13/14 for each seaport; however, the existing forecasts
were reviewed by Cambridge Systematics and found to be accurate given the methodology
used and validation with the Florida Trade and Logistics Study.
Florida Department of Transportation 4-10
December 2010