Florida Seaport System Plan - SeaCIP

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Florida Seaport System Plan 4.2 Regional and Statewide Waterborne Activity Forecasts As part of the development of the Plan, activity data for all ports in Florida were reviewed to determine a reasonable long-range state-level forecast for Florida’s seaports, consistent with Florida’s forecast information for other modes. In developing a state-level forecast, the key challenge is that each port prepares its own individual forecasts, according to its own methods and using its own timelines. The only forecast that is developed in common by the ports is the six-year projection in the Seaport Mission Plan. Therefore, the forecasting methodology required several steps and sources: • For the first six years, the Seaport Mission Plan projections through 2012/2013 were used. 3 • For subsequent years, each port’s individual Master Plan and/or traffic forecast was utilized. Each port was contacted for this information and had the opportunity to review how the information was applied in developing the forecast. • For any years through 2035 where information was not provided directly by the ports, historic and forecast growth rates were translated into trendline projections and applied through all forecast years. In cases where trendline projections were negative, or exceeded statewide averages for the last seven years, the projections were limited to this range. • Because the Seaport Mission Plan projections and many of the port’s Master Plans and individual forecasts were developed prior to the recession, they do not reflect the current economic downturn, in which national and statewide freight movement volumes have regressed somewhat. Adjustments for the recession were therefore applied. • The Seaport Mission Plan projections and the ports’ Master Plans and individual forecasts reflect generally foreseeable opportunities, such as the expansion of the Panama Canal and growth in Asia all-water container trade. No adjustments were required for these effects. • Finally, each port was contacted to review the final forecast product. The regional and statewide projections were developed for use as a planning tool, similar to other statewide modal system forecasts. Generally, ports plan on a 5 to 10 year horizon. The waterborne industry is very dynamic and 3 Forecasts are now available for FY 13/14 for each seaport; however, the existing forecasts were reviewed by Cambridge Systematics and found to be accurate given the methodology used and validation with the Florida Trade and Logistics Study. Florida Department of Transportation 4-10 December 2010
Florida Seaport System Plan because so much can change in a period of 30 years, these forecasts are used as order of magnitude estimates of what the future could look like over the next 25 years. Understanding potential cargo and passenger volumes is a critical factor driving major investment decisions, like dredging to 50-feet or constructing major Interstate connections. Forecasts show container growth continues at a historic rate with tonnage and cruise growth resuming after the recession at slightly lower rates. Figure 4.1 details ‘recession adjusted’ projections for Florida’s ports. Based on available data and port input, these projections appear reasonable. The cumulative growth rate for 2008-2035 is shown at 3.6 percent for containers, 2.5 percent for tonnage, and 2.1 percent for cruise passengers. Figure 4.1 “Recession Adjusted” Florida Port Projections 2001 to 2006 Recession Cumulative 2008-2035 TEUs 3.6% TEUs 3.5% TEUs 3.6% 250,000,000 Tons 3.0% Tons 0.2% Tons 2.5% 45,000,000 Cruise 3.9% Cruise 0.3% Cruise 2.1% 40,000,000 200,000,000 35,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Tons Five-Year Divot 2006-2011 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 TEUs and Cruise 10,000,000 5,000,000 - Tons TEUs Cruise Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, American Association of Port Authorities, and port data. Note: Cruise passenger statistics consist of embarking and debarking passengers. Table 4.1 following provides a detailed breakdown of the 2035 forecasts by cargo type and region. The State as a whole is expected to reach as many as 8.3 million containers by 2035, a near tripling of containers handled in 2008. It is anticipated the South Atlantic region (mainly Port Everglades and Port of Miami) will continue to lead the State in number of containers with over 4.4 million TEUs by 2035. This is almost one and a half times more than the State total in 2007/2008. The North Atlantic region (mainly Port of Jacksonville) is forecasted to be a little over half of the South Atlantic region with nearly 2.4 million TEUs. Growth in 4-11 Florida Department of Transportation December 2010
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Florida Seaport System Plan - SeaCIP

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