Florida Seaport System Plan - SeaCIP

Florida Seaport System Plan
How Florida and its ports deal with constraints and opportunities is, of course, a
critical policy question. To better address this question, the Florida Chamber
Foundation, FDOT, the Florida Ports Council (FPC), and other stakeholders
partnered in a comprehensive Trade and Logistics Study of all transportation
modes serving Florida. As part of that study, a set of detailed international
cargo forecasts was developed.
The Trade and Logistics Study base case forecast actually envisions slightly lower
growth rates than the recession-adjusted projections from Figure 4.1 – 2.5 percent
annual growth through 2035 for containers (versus 3.6 percent in the projection),
and 1.9 percent for total tonnage (versus 2.5 percent in the projection). One reason
for the difference is that the Trade and Logistics Study does not include domestic
tonnage. The other reason is that the study base case forecast assumes no
significant improvements to Florida’s capacity that would lead it to increase its
share of key international trades, particularly all-water Asian trades. The
projections in Figure 4.1 are derived from port forecasts, and to the extent that the
port forecasts have made those assumptions, it reflects those assumptions.
Table 4.2
Trade and Logistics Study International Forecasts
Base Case
Direction Handling Type 2010
Tons
2020 2035 CAGR a
Import Container 5,120,602 6,947,917 9,727,340
All Types 27,885,264 32,615,065 36,985,262
Export Container 11,013,881 13,362,281 19,216,355
All Types 17,438,450 22,873,627 34,303,975
Total Container 16,134,483 20,310,198 28,943,695 2.5 percent
All Types 45,323,714 55,488,692 71,289,237 1.9 percent
a Source: Trade and Logistics Study, Florida Chamber Foundation, 2010.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
The Trade and Logistics Study base case forecast is therefore an excellent
benchmark for a “do nothing” scenario for international waterborne trade, in
which Florida maintains its seaport system but does not invest aggressively to
improve its competitiveness with respect to other ports.
The study also looked at two other scenarios – one in which Florida invested at
a level necessary to capture 25 percent of potential additional Asian container
imports, and one where it invests to capture 50 percent. The result would be
near-term attraction of significant blocks of new demand, with stepwise
“jumps” in Florida TEUs over the next ten years, followed by resumption of
stable year-over-year compound growth. In the base case, import containers
grow at 3.1 percent over the next ten years; in the “25 percent capture”
scenario, they grow at 7.4 percent over the next ten years; and in the “50
4-13 Florida Department of Transportation
December 2010