Defence Forces Review 2008

Defence Forces Review 2008
The situation in Liberia immediately prior to the deployment of UNMIL is illustrative of the
necessary conditions for ethno political conflict. The conditions necessary for intrastate ethno
political conflict can be divided into four main points;
a. Poor economic conditions.
b. Repressive political system.
c. Degradation of renewable resources – (not as central as a, b or d).
d. Ethnic diversity.
Intra-state conflict, as witnessed in Liberia resulted in the collapse of the states institutions
and the disintegration of the national fabric.
Assessment a n d Ev a l u a t i o n.
In order to assess the success or other wise of the UNMIL deployment, criteria by which it can
be assessed must be stated. The mission can be assessed in two ways; one as an independent
UN deployment with mission specific objectives and a tailored mandate and two, as a UN
operation encompassing the broader peace building endeavour following on from the lessons
of Brahimi. Stephen Stedman 21 suggested a difficulty score for peace implementation based
on eight variables. 22
a. The number of Warring Parties.- The difficulty of implementation increases
when there are more than two warring parties. 23
b. The absence of a peace agreement signed by all major warring parties before
intervention and with a minimum of coercion – intervention without agreement
from all parties may lead to increased conflict from parties who do not agree with
the peace agreement and value the status quo.
c. The likelihood of spoilers – leaders and parties who believe that peace emerging
from negotiations threatens their power, worldview, and interests, and use violence
to undermine attempts to achieve it. 24
d. Collapsed state- The lack of state institutions and governing capacity.
e. Number of soldiers – Greater numbers of soldiers increases the difficulty with
monitoring and demands for verification.
f. Disposable natural resources – If warring parties have access to disposable
resources such as gems, minerals or timber then implementation becomes more
difficult.
g. Wars of succession – Civil conflict over national sovereignty often revert to allor-nothing
struggles.
h. Hostile neighbouring states or networks – In regions where weak states cannot
adequately control their borders, the threat of unwanted external influence can
assist spoilers and impact negatively on implementation.
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