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9 IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE MANAGEMENT: A
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
9.1 Introduction
While an understanding of the total economic value of the delta is potentially useful for lobbying for
conservation support, consideration of how this value might change under different management or
policy scenarios is potentially a far more useful undertaking for decision-makers. Numerous
development options have been considered for this area in the past, such as irrigation schemes and
water transfers out of the Okavango. Various management options have been considered which
affect the location and extent of veterinary fences and wildlife management areas, or consumptive or
non-consumptive use of wildlife, the density of tourism developments, etc. In addition, it would be
prudent to consider the effect of matters beyond local control, namely climate change which threatens
to alter rainfall patterns and flooding of the Okavango. This chapter considers a handful of feasible
scenarios in order to investigate how the economic value of the Okavango Delta would be affected.
It should be emphasised that this entire study was carried out as a brief exercise where the main
emphasis was on deriving the current value of the delta. This scenario analysis is purely a desktop
analysis, and essentially a back-of-the-envelope exercise designed to explore the possible types of
outcomes under different scenarios. Spatial data on values are not detailed enough to allow accurate
calculation of scenario impacts. Thus estimates of biophysical changes that would lead to changes in
economic value were made on the basis of educated subjective estimates made by team members. If
these outcomes are of particular interest it would be worthwhile investigating the assumptions further
in a dedicated study.
9.2 Description of selected scenarios
The scenarios considered here were developed based on scenarios that have already been
considered for the delta at one stage or another, or that would illustrate an extreme case. The
proposed scenarios were discussed in a stakeholder workshop during an early part of the study. The
list of scenarios considered here is not comprehensive, however. For example, it has been argued
that Moremi should be opened up to CBNRM to reduce conflicts between Khwai residents and the
wildlife tourism sector, since the establishment of Moremi ain 1963 led to displacement of Khwai
residents from their land, and affected the Basarwa’s hunting and gathering economy (Mbaiwa 2005).
We have not considered such a scenario.
The present situation is described in detail in Chapter 2. The following potential future scenarios were
investigated, each of which is described in more detail below:
1. Agricultural expansion
2. Expanded protection
3. Wise use
4. Wise use plus abstraction
5. Wise use plus climate change
The planning document by Plantec et al. (2006) was used to guide the wise use scenarios.
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