Index 447 unexpected relative rise in home money in 262,wealth transfers <strong>and</strong> the current account 257–8 nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) 3 nominal exchange rates 2; fundamentals-based approach 94 non-borrowed reserves to total reserves (nbrx) 223; as the measure of monetary policy 223 non-tradables,competitiveness measure in 399 n.17 Oates,W. 178 Obstfeld,M. 20,27,71–2,75,86,106–7, 128,197–8,216,228,248–9,251,255–6, 258–9,263,267,272–3,277–8,281–2, 285,305,313,317,319,321 O’Connell,P. 62,72 Oh,K.-Y. 60 O’Hara,M. 339,357,362 Ohare,H. 212 one-step-ahead restrictions test 401 n.7 (chap.6) optimal currency area (OCA) 34 order flow variable <strong>and</strong> price 359–67; foreign exchange microstructural models 360; ‘hot potato’ view 361–2; information processing stages 360; Killeen,Lyons <strong>and</strong> Moore (KLM) hypothesis 367; portfolio-balance approach to the exchange rate 364; Rueters D2000–1 trading system 361,363,366; temporary <strong>and</strong> persistent portfolio-balance effects 365–6 Ostry,J.D. 248 Overturf,S.F. 356 Ozaki,T. 72 Papell,D.H. 62 Parsley,D. 60,62,67,69–71 Patel,J. 52 Pauls,B. Diane 207 Pedroni,P. 56 perfect capital mobility 19,113 permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) 240; PEERS permanent <strong>and</strong> transitory components of real exchange rates 236–43 Perron,P. 57–8 Peruga,R. 378,381 Pfleiderer,P. 354,357,362 Phillips,P.C.B. 56 Pill,H. 323 Pitt,M. 348–50 portfolio balance approach/models,to the exchange rate 178–84,401 n.14; asset market equilibrium 182–4; for Canadian–US exchange rates 197; Cobb–Douglas formulation 180; econometric evidence on 194–8; goods market equilibrium 183–4; Mundell–Fleming–Dornbusch model 178; for sterling–dollar exchange rate 198 post-Bretton Woods phenomenon,51 PPP puzzle,economics of 39–93,see also under purchasing power parity: market structure <strong>and</strong> the real exchange rate 77–85, Johansen multivariate cointegration method 84,pricing to market <strong>and</strong> pass-through 77–8, see also under pricing to market (PTM); market structure <strong>and</strong> the role of the distribution sector 86–8,price equalization of tradable goods 87; non-traded to traded goods,productivity differences <strong>and</strong> the relative price of 73–7, Balassa–Samuelson effect,testing for 75–6, Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis 73–5, dem<strong>and</strong> side <strong>and</strong> the internal price ratio 77,testing using measures of productivity 76–7; pricing to market (PTM),<strong>and</strong> PPP puzzle 77–8,empirical evidence 80–5, theory 78–80; productivity redux <strong>and</strong> the imperfect substitutability of internationally traded goods 88–93,Balassa–Samuelson theoretical results 88–91,Dixit–Stiglitz framework 89–90,non-tradables drops, coefficient of productivity on 92; transaction costs,the neutral b<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> non non-linear mean reversion 69–73,macro effect 70,panel methods 70,relative price volatility 70,transactions costs <strong>and</strong> non-linear adjustment 71–3, see also B<strong>and</strong> Threshold Autoregressive (B-TAR) model; exponentially autoregressive (EAR) model; smooth transition autoregressive (SETAR) model; transactions costs versus nominal exchange rate volatility 69–71 Prasad,E. 219–20,222,287 Prat,G. 393 price puzzle 225 product/country fixed effects 398 n.7 productivity,definition 398 n.2 purchasing power parity (PPP) <strong>and</strong> the PPP puzzle 39–67; absolute PPP (APPP) 41, restrictiveness of 41; asset view of 43; cointegration-based tests 52–7,basic message from 53,Dickey–Fuller statistics 53–4,Engle–Granger method 53–4, Engle–Granger two-step regression 53–4, multivariate cointegration tests 55, panel cointegration methods 56,wholesale <strong>and</strong> consumer prices (WPI <strong>and</strong> CPI) 54;
448 Index purchasing power parity (PPP) <strong>and</strong> the PPP puzzle (Continued) hypothesis 39; PPP <strong>and</strong> the LOOP,early empirical evidence on 47–50,panel methods 49–50; PPP <strong>and</strong> the LOOP, recent empirical evidence on 50–58, nominal exchange rate <strong>and</strong> relative price relationship,relationship between 50,real exchange rate volatility <strong>and</strong> systematic movements of the real exchange rate,q T versus qNT ,T 50–2; traditional PPP versus efficient markets PPP <strong>and</strong> the PPP puzzle 40–7,absolute <strong>and</strong> relative PPP 40–6, capital market arbitrage 47,efficient markets PPP 46–7,half-life concept 44–5, long-run PPP 44,uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) 47, see also Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis; transportation costs effects on regression-based tests of PPP 53; unit root based tests of PPP 57–8; unit root based tests,econometric <strong>and</strong> statistical issues in calculating the half-life 58–67,Big Mac data to avoid product <strong>and</strong> time aggregation biases 67,FIML methods 63,half-lives <strong>and</strong> size biases 63,imprecision of half-lives 64,increasing NT by increasing N, increasing NT by increasing T,Levin <strong>and</strong> Lin approach 61–2,long time span studies 59–60,panel studies 60–3,panel unit root tests,residual correlation in 62,power of unit root tests <strong>and</strong> the span of the data 58–63,product aggregation bias 64–6, time aggregation bias 66,VAR-based method 63 Purvis,D.D. 120 Putnam,B.H. 139 Quah,D. 37,214 Radelet,S. 323 rational speculative bubbles 98–9 Razin,A. 32–3 real effective exchange rate (REER) 3 real exchange rate 2,129: real exchange rate/real interest rate relationship,error correction relationship for 402 n.5 real exchange rate determination,theory <strong>and</strong> evidence 199–226; eclectic real exchange rate model 199–205,balance of payments <strong>and</strong> the real exchange rate 202–4, empirical estimates of 225,foreign price level 204–5,general price level channel <strong>and</strong> the dem<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> supply for money 201–2,Phillips–Loretan estimator 212, restricted cointegrating vectors for the Japanese yen effective exchange rate 211, tests of 210–12,tests using the methods of Johansen 210; exchange rate puzzle, explanations for 224; real exchange rate models,empirical tests of 205–12, cointegration-based estimates of the RERI 206–8, see also separate entry,<strong>and</strong> real interest differential,relationship between 206,real interest rate parity 205–6; real exchange rates into permanent <strong>and</strong> transitory components,decomposing 212–4, Beveridge–Nelson (BN) decompositions 212,multivariate BN decomposition (MBN) 212,univariate <strong>and</strong> multivariate BN decompositions 213,unobserved components model 213; structured VARS, dem<strong>and</strong>,supply <strong>and</strong> monetary shocks 214–6,Clarida–Gali SVAR approach 216–23, see also separate entry,Latrapes work on 215,SVAR approach 214–15; VAR-based studies of 223–6; vector analysed using 224 Reichlin,L. 35 Reinhart,C.M. 28–30,32–3,248,333–5 reported foreign exchange market turnover, currency distribution 6 restricted VECM model 401 n.7(chap.6) Ricci,L. 36,76–7,86–9,91–2,235 Richard,S. 379 Rigobon,R. 366 Rodriguez,A.P. 384 Rodriguez,C.A. 170,173,176 Rodriguez,L. 173 Rogers,J.H. 51,70–2,221 Rogoff,K.S. 20,27–30,32–3,37,45,46, 59–60,66,75,81,86,106,134,141–3, 150–1,165,197,205,207,228,248–9, 251,255–6,258–9,263,267,272–3, 277–8,281–2,384 Rose,A.K. 20,25,35,36,49,60,150–1, 163–5,297,298,302,333,335 Roubini,N. 25,130,132,224–5 Rubinstein,Y. 32–3 Russell,T. 120 Ryu,D. 73 Saack,B. 366 Sachs,J. 323 Salemi,H. 350,384 Samuelson,P. 43,46,51–2,63,68,73–7,86, 88–9,91,156,199,208,212,226,236, 241,265,398 n.3,399 n.8 Sarno,L. 63 Sarte,L. 222
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Exchange Rate Economics Exchange Ra
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Firstpublished2007 by Routledge 2Pa
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Contents List of figures List of ta
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Figures 1.1 The balance of payments
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Figures 13.6 Fourth generation spec
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Preface This book is the second edi
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2 Introduction Although the textboo
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4 Introduction (orders to buy/sell
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6 Introduction Table 1.3 Currency d
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8 Introduction a truly flexible exc
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10 Introduction this has to be sati
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12 Introduction likely that the rel
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14 Introduction or F (1 + i) = S (1
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16 Introduction Consider now a fall
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18 Introduction The empirical evide
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20 Introduction (mean and variance)
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22 Introduction (a) (b) 0.3 0.25 0.
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24 Introduction clusters or that it
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26 Introduction 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0
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28 Introduction 1.9 Exchange rate r
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30 Introduction fixed versus flexib
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32 Introduction influences. For exa
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34 Introduction 1.11 The determinan
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36 Introduction In the standard OCA
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38 Introduction most transactions i
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40 Purchasing power parity and the
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42 Purchasing power parity and the
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44 Purchasing power parity and the
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46 Purchasing power parity and the
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48 Purchasing power parity and the
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50 Purchasing power parity and the
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52 Purchasing power parity and the
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54 Purchasing power parity and the
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56 Purchasing power parity and the
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58 Purchasing power parity and the
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60 Purchasing power parity and the
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62 Purchasing power parity and the
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64 Purchasing power parity and the
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66 Purchasing power parity and the
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3 The economics of the PPP puzzle I
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70 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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72 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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74 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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76 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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78 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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80 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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82 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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84 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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86 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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88 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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90 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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92 The economics of the PPP puzzle
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4 The flexible price monetary appro
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96 The flexible price monetary appr
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98 The flexible price monetary appr
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100 The flexible price monetary app
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102 The flexible price monetary app
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104 The flexible price monetary app
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5 The sticky-price monetary model I
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108 The sticky-price monetary model
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110 The sticky-price monetary model
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112 The sticky-price monetary model
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114 The sticky-price monetary model
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116 The sticky-price monetary model
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118 The sticky-price monetary model
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120 The sticky-price monetary model
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122 The sticky-price monetary model
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124 The sticky-price monetary model
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126 The sticky-price monetary model
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128 The sticky-price monetary model
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130 The sticky-price monetary model
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132 The sticky-price monetary model
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6 The monetaryapproach to the excha
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136 Empirical evidence on the monet
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138 Empirical evidence on the monet
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140 Empirical evidence on the monet
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142 Empirical evidence on the monet
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144 Empirical evidence on the monet
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146 Empirical evidence on the monet
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148 Empirical evidence on the monet
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150 Empirical evidence on the monet
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152 Empirical evidence on the monet
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Table 6.5 SEM equations: United Kin
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156 Empirical evidence on the monet
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158 Empirical evidence on the monet
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160 Empirical evidence on the monet
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162 Empirical evidence on the monet
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164 Empirical evidence on the monet
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7 Currencysubstitution models and t
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168 Currency substitution and portf
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170 Currency substitution and portf
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172 Currency substitution and portf
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174 Currency substitution and portf
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176 Currency substitution and portf
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178 Currency substitution and portf
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180 Currency substitution and portf
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182 Currency substitution and portf
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184 Currency substitution and portf
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186 Currency substitution and portf
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188 Currency substitution and portf
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190 Currency substitution and portf
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192 Currency substitution and portf
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194 Currency substitution and portf
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196 Currency substitution and portf
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198 Currency substitution and portf
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200 Real exchange rate determinatio
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202 Real exchange rate determinatio
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204 Real exchange rate determinatio
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206 Real exchange rate determinatio
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208 Real exchange rate determinatio
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210 Real exchange rate determinatio
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212 Real exchange rate determinatio
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214 Real exchange rate determinatio
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216 Real exchange rate determinatio
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218 Real exchange rate determinatio
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220 Real exchange rate determinatio
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222 Real exchange rate determinatio
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224 Real exchange rate determinatio
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226 Real exchange rate determinatio
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228 Equilibrium exchange rates rate
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230 Equilibrium exchange rates A nu
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232 Equilibrium exchange rates long
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234 Equilibrium exchange rates 5.1
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236 Equilibrium exchange rates term
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238 Equilibrium exchange rates 0.30
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240 Equilibrium exchange rates Detk
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242 Equilibrium exchange rates US i
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244 Equilibrium exchange rates The
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246 Equilibrium exchange rates 9.6.
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248 Equilibrium exchange rates 9.6.
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250 Equilibrium exchange rates Conc
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252 The new open economy macroecono
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254 The new open economy macroecono
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256 The new open economy macroecono
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258 The new open economy macroecono
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260 The new open economy macroecono
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262 The new open economy macroecono
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264 The new open economy macroecono
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266 The new open economy macroecono
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268 The new open economy macroecono
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270 The new open economy macroecono
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272 The new open economy macroecono
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11 The new open economy macroeconom
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276 The new open economy macroecono
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278 The new open economy macroecono
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280 The new open economy macroecono
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282 The new open economy macroecono
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284 The new open economy macroecono
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286 The new open economy macroecono
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288 The new open economy macroecono
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290 Target zone models 12.1 The bas
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292 Target zone models stochastic c
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294 Target zone models moves from 2
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296 Target zone models where A 1 an
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298 Target zone models expected dev
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300 Target zone models % expected d
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302 Target zone models MacDonald (2
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304 Target zone models for the DM-l
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306 Target zone models explicit ban
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308 Target zone models Table 12.1 F
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310 Target zone models short-term i
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312 Target zone models the UK short
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314 Speculative attack models and c
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316 Speculative attack models and c
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318 Speculative attack models and c
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320 Speculative attack models and c
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322 Speculative attack models and c
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324 Speculative attack models and c
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326 Speculative attack models and c
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328 Speculative attack models and c
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330 Speculative attack models and c
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332 Speculative attack models and c
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334 Speculative attack models and c
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336 Speculative attack models and c
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338 Speculative attack models and c
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340 Market microstructure approach
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342 Market microstructure approach
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344 Market microstructure approach
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346 Market microstructure approach
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348 Market microstructure approach
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350 Market microstructure approach
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352 Market microstructure approach
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354 Market microstructure approach
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356 Market microstructure approach
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358 Market microstructure approach
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360 Market microstructure approach
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362 Market microstructure approach
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364 Market microstructure approach
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366 Market microstructure approach
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368 Market microstructure approach
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15 Spot and forward exchange rates
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372 Spot and forward exchange rates
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374 Spot and forward exchange rates
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376 Spot and forward exchange rates
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378 Spot and forward exchange rates
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380 Spot and forward exchange rates
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382 Spot and forward exchange rates
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384 Spot and forward exchange rates
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386 Spot and forward exchange rates
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388 Spot and forward exchange rates
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390 Spot and forward exchange rates
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392 Spot and forward exchange rates
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394 Spot and forward exchange rates
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- Page 421 and 422: 406 References Artis,M. and M. Lewi
- Page 423 and 424: 408 References Bergin,P.,R. Glick a
- Page 425 and 426: 410 References Calvo,G.A. and C.A.
- Page 427 and 428: 412 References Clark,P.B. and R. Ma
- Page 429 and 430: 414 References Detken,C.,A. Dieppe,
- Page 431 and 432: 416 References Edwards,S. and I. Ma
- Page 433 and 434: 418 References Fischer,S. (2001),
- Page 435 and 436: 420 References Frieden,J.P.G. and E
- Page 437 and 438: 422 References Granger,C.W. and T.
- Page 439 and 440: 424 References Hooper,P. and J. Mor
- Page 441 and 442: 426 References Kearney,C. and R. Ma
- Page 443 and 444: 428 References Lewis,K. (1988),‘T
- Page 445 and 446: 430 References MacDonald,R. (2002),
- Page 447 and 448: 432 References Mark,N.C. (2001),Int
- Page 449 and 450: 434 References Obstfeld,M. and K. R
- Page 451 and 452: 436 References Roll,R. (1979),‘Vi
- Page 453 and 454: 438 References Tauchen,G.E. and M.
- Page 455 and 456: Index Abadir,K. 389 Abuaf,N. 60 Adl
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- Page 459 and 460: 444 Index Gagnon,J. 212 Gali,J. 128
- Page 461: 446 Index Miller,M.H. 120,123,128,1
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