1900 - Coalmininghistorypa.org

No. 11. BUREAU OF MINES. xli
EXPORT OF AMERICAN COAL.
Mr. Stanley Jevons, "who is so often quoted in connection with the
coal statistics of England, wrote about twenty-five years ago: "While
the export of coal is a vast and growing branch of our trade, a reversal
of trade and a future return current of coal is a commercial impossibility
and absurdity."
Mr. Jevons did not have the clearness
of vision of the future that he imagined, and could he see the coal
statistics for the past two years, he would find that coal has been
carried from America to London, as well as to a number of European
countries.
The subject of the export of American coal has attracted a great
deal of attention and interest from numerous writers and very many
ridiculous prophecies and forecasts have been made upon the subject.
Prophesying is unprofitable business at the best, and the quoting
of statistics is of but little use as a basis for forecasting future
results. Most people agree with the great D'Israeli's assertion that
there are three stages of falsification, "lies, damned lies and statistics."
There are. however, some figures that show the trend of
events, even if they cannot be used as a basis for estimating future
results.
It may- be well, therefore, to consider the facts of the case.
There has been an enormous increase in the world's output of coal in
recent years, 85,500,000 tons more having been mined in
1899 than
in 1897. This shows that the demand is increasing at a rapid rate,
and the United States seems to be the only country that is likely to
meet this increasing demand.
Within the past thirty years Great Britain has doubled her output
of coal. Germany has doubled hers in twenty years; America has
increased her output, and her consumption more than six fold, and
she now ranks as the world's leading coal producer, with enormous
reserves back of the mines that are now producing.
With a rapidly widening market for coal, and as the Tinted States
seems to be the only country likely to increase its output to keep
pace with this increasing demand, it would seem to be the natural
conclusion that America must in time, and that not far distant, become
the world's coal toiler, as she is now its granary. When that
lime shall be, depends upon economic conditions. The fact that
some cargoes of coal have been shipped to London from America
within the past year or two. is interesting as refuting statements
made by Jevons and others, that this never could be done, but it has
little commercial significance, as it will probably be a number of
years, if
ever, before we can hope for much of a trade with England.