An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

An Unhealthy AmericaMilken Instituteinvestment in health. Because this variable captures the overall health investment in lifestyle and diet, it isparticularly applicable to chronic disease. Better investments to health and lifestyle will result in greatersustained labor force numbers and higher workforce quality. Some statistical projections use life expectancyat birth, but this is generally used to proxy a country’s health and poverty, and seems less appropriate for aleading economy. As a variable, life expectancy at 65 is not used as frequently as life expectancy at birth. Thisis because it has been more difficult to obtain. However, our research specifically presses for its use as a variablesince chronic disease generally afflicts older populations. In terms of comparison between the two variables, it ismore difficult to gain an extra year of life expectancy at age 65 than it is to gain a year of life expectancy at birth.The following graph demonstrates the increase in life expectancy at 65, drawn from the complete life tablepublications of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The baseline forecast is conservative andassumes a continuation of historical trends. The optimistic forecast, however, is based on our estimates ofprojected PRC data from previous chapters. We expect medical technology to have especially significantpositive impacts on heart disease, breast cancer, and diabetes; therefore, improvements to life expectancy at65 will be greater than the baseline.Life Expectancy at 65 Life - U.S. Expectancy Baseline and at Optimistic Age 65 ProjectionsU.S. Baseline and Optimistic ProjectionsDiseaseYears Remaining26Expenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Expenditures/PRCBaseline (Thousands)Cancer 2448.1 10.6 Optimistic4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 22Lung Cancer3.96.30.30.411.517.1Prostate Cancer 20Other Cancers4.328.01.07.74.13.6Pulmonary Conditions 1845.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 1632.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease History 64.7Forecast19.2 3.4Stroke 1413.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 1970 1980 1990 45.8 2000 2010 30.3 2020 2030 2040 1.5TotalSources: NCHS, Milken Institute277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionThe historical and projected tables that follow detail the growth for life expectancy at 65. The top five statesand the bottom five states are represented according to their rankings. In 2003, for example, Hawaii toppedthe list, with 21.03 years (21.03 years past age 65). This was followed by Florida, Minnesota, Connecticut, andArizona. These states can be characterized by generally healthy lifestyles; several are known as travel andretirement destinations. The bottom five are Southern states and characterized by a greater prevalence ofunhealthy behaviors.[ 169 ]