An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

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An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteOregonOregonDirect Costs2003 2023Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceAvoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Expenditure perPRC ($)Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands)PRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Cancer 123 4,160 0.51 203 167 8,558 7,664 1.74 1.28 -36 -17.80 -893 -10.44 -0.46 -26.38Breast cancer 13 4,667 0.06 19 17 9,539 8,536 0.18 0.14 -2 -12.30 -1,003 -10.52 -0.04 -21.52Colon cancer 4 10,916 0.05 6 5 24,613 22,036 0.14 0.11 -1 -17.67 -2,577 -10.47 -0.04 -26.29Lung cancer 5 16,127 0.09 7 6 33,053 29,577 0.24 0.18 -1 -18.44 -3,476 -10.52 -0.07 -27.02Prostate cancer 10 3,785 0.04 19 15 7,932 7,099 0.15 0.11 -4 -21.48 -833 -10.51 -0.05 -29.73Other cancers 90 3,157 0.28 151 124 6,686 5,984 1.01 0.74 -27 -18.00 -702 -10.50 -0.27 -26.61Diabetes 138 1,870 0.26 222 192 3,930 3,517 0.87 0.68 -29 -13.30 -413 -10.50 -0.20 -22.40Heart disease 190 3,236 0.62 274 179 7,237 6,479 1.98 1.16 -95 -34.63 -758 -10.47 -0.82 -41.47Pulmonary conditions 590 825 0.49 809 695 1,798 1,609 1.45 1.12 -114 -14.05 -189 -10.49 -0.34 -23.07Hypertension 377 839 0.32 533 434 1,766 1,580 0.94 0.69 -100 -18.70 -185 -10.50 -0.26 -27.24Stroke 35 5,394 0.19 48 39 12,309 11,021 0.59 0.43 -9 -18.84 -1,288 -10.46 -0.16 -27.33Mental disorders 627 1,674 1.06 1,001 878 3,486 3,119 3.49 2.74 -124 -12.35 -366 -10.51 -0.75 -21.56Total 2,080 1,653 3.44 3,090 2,583 4,038 3,614 11.06 8.08 -506 -16.39 -423 -10.49 -2.98 -26.94Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent2003TotalLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 3.14 0.58 0.47 9.77 5.81 0.042 0.034 0.94 0.61 11.33 6.93 -4.40 -38.87Breast cancer 0.36 0.06 0.05 1.03 0.66 0.004 0.004 0.10 0.07 1.20 0.78 -0.42 -34.84Colon cancer 0.29 0.05 0.04 0.81 0.48 0.003 0.003 0.08 0.05 0.94 0.58 -0.37 -38.79Lung cancer 0.52 0.08 0.07 1.38 0.81 0.006 0.005 0.13 0.09 1.60 0.97 -0.63 -39.40Prostate cancer 0.24 0.05 0.04 0.86 0.49 0.004 0.003 0.08 0.05 1.00 0.58 -0.42 -41.65Other cancers 1.73 0.34 0.27 5.68 3.37 0.024 0.020 0.55 0.36 6.59 4.01 -2.57 -39.07Diabetes 1.06 0.37 0.32 2.98 2.34 0.029 0.025 0.32 0.25 3.69 2.93 -0.77 -20.76Heart disease 1.04 0.64 0.42 2.31 1.26 0.062 0.041 0.22 0.12 3.24 1.84 -1.39 -43.01Asthma 1.12 0.67 0.57 2.38 1.93 0.048 0.042 0.23 0.19 3.32 2.73 -0.59 -17.74Hypertension 2.87 1.29 1.05 6.68 5.29 0.126 0.103 0.65 0.51 8.75 6.95 -1.80 -20.55Stroke 0.32 0.16 0.13 0.70 0.53 0.012 0.009 0.07 0.05 0.94 0.72 -0.22 -23.35Emotional disturbances 3.53 1.35 1.18 9.81 8.24 0.098 0.086 0.94 0.79 12.20 10.30 -1.89 -15.54Total 13.08 5.04 4.14 34.63 25.40 0.42 0.34 3.37 2.53 43.46 32.40 -11.06 -25.45* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - LevelProjections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceStroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionPercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Baseline Optimistic Absolute1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 11.80 26.90 30.34 32.31 1.97 6.51 37.98 44.59 6.61 17.40Capital stock (US$ Billions) 67.00 192.64 410.48 425.45 14.96 3.64 1485.73 1630.58 144.85 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 15.57 18.59 20.33 21.50 1.17 5.76 23.24 25.49 2.25 9.66GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 15.22 125.11 170.17 182.18 12.01 7.06 356.51 419.33 62.82 17.62*Based on Real GDP[ 223 ]
An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstitutePennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaDirect Costs2003 2023Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceAvoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Expenditure perPRC ($)Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands)PRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Cancer 485 4,847 2.35 686 564 8,144 7,504 5.59 4.23 -122 -17.78 -641 -7.87 -1.36 -24.25Breast cancer 59 5,507 0.32 72 63 9,355 8,612 0.68 0.55 -9 -12.30 -742 -7.94 -0.13 -19.26Colon cancer 15 11,477 0.17 16 13 20,974 19,315 0.34 0.26 -3 -17.67 -1,659 -7.91 -0.08 -24.18Lung cancer 17 17,953 0.31 20 16 30,558 28,133 0.61 0.46 -4 -18.44 -2,425 -7.93 -0.15 -24.92Prostate cancer 49 4,869 0.24 74 58 8,426 7,758 0.62 0.45 -16 -21.48 -668 -7.93 -0.17 -27.70Other cancers 346 3,797 1.31 504 413 6,623 6,098 3.34 2.52 -91 -18.00 -525 -7.93 -0.82 -24.50Diabetes 709 2,054 1.46 920 798 3,562 3,279 3.28 2.62 -122 -13.30 -282 -7.93 -0.66 -20.17Heart disease 1,017 2,894 2.94 1,198 783 5,256 4,840 6.30 3.79 -415 -34.63 -416 -7.91 -2.51 -39.80Pulmonary conditions 2,167 861 1.86 2,588 2,224 1,534 1,412 3.97 3.14 -364 -14.05 -121 -7.92 -0.83 -20.86Hypertension 1,684 887 1.50 2,036 1,655 1,540 1,418 3.14 2.35 -381 -18.70 -122 -7.93 -0.79 -25.14Stroke 135 5,764 0.78 150 122 10,629 9,788 1.59 1.19 -28 -18.84 -840 -7.90 -0.40 -25.26Mental disorders 1,582 1,705 2.68 2,088 1,830 2,937 2,704 6.13 4.95 -258 -12.35 -233 -7.93 -1.18 -19.30Total 7,780 1,745 13.57 9,666 7,976 3,587 3,303 29.99 22.27 -1,690 -17.48 -284 -7.91 -7.72 -25.75Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver Total2003TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute PercentLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 12.44 1.95 1.60 33.04 19.64 0.141 0.115 3.20 2.08 38.33 23.43 -14.89 -38.86Breast cancer 1.70 0.24 0.21 3.99 2.53 0.017 0.015 0.39 0.27 4.63 3.02 -1.61 -34.83Colon cancer 0.88 0.12 0.10 2.01 1.20 0.009 0.007 0.19 0.13 2.34 1.43 -0.91 -38.80Lung cancer 1.66 0.21 0.17 3.63 2.14 0.015 0.013 0.35 0.23 4.21 2.55 -1.66 -39.40Prostate cancer 1.25 0.22 0.17 3.69 2.09 0.016 0.012 0.36 0.22 4.28 2.50 -1.78 -41.65Other cancers 6.94 1.17 0.95 19.72 11.69 0.084 0.069 1.91 1.24 22.88 13.94 -8.94 -39.06Diabetes 5.41 1.52 1.31 12.39 9.71 0.121 0.104 1.32 1.03 15.35 12.16 -3.19 -20.76Heart disease 5.56 2.78 1.82 10.11 5.53 0.273 0.178 0.98 0.53 14.14 8.06 -6.08 -43.01Asthma 4.13 2.14 1.84 7.60 6.18 0.155 0.134 0.74 0.60 10.63 8.75 -1.89 -17.74Hypertension 12.81 4.91 4.00 25.52 20.18 0.483 0.393 2.48 1.96 33.39 26.53 -6.86 -20.55Stroke 1.23 0.50 0.41 2.19 1.66 0.036 0.029 0.21 0.16 2.94 2.25 -0.69 -23.35Emotional disturbances 8.91 2.81 2.46 20.45 17.19 0.204 0.178 1.96 1.65 25.43 21.48 -3.95 -15.54Total 50.48 16.61 13.43 111.30 80.09 1.41 1.13 10.88 8.01 140.21 102.66 -37.55 -26.78* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - Level Projections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceHeart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionBaseline Optimistic Absolute PercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 8.70 25.57 28.06 29.90 1.84 6.54 34.62 40.64 6.02 17.40Capital stock (US$ Billions) 417.81 673.67 1225.46 1270.39 44.93 3.64 3123.71 3428.25 304.54 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 14.35 18.23 19.93 21.08 1.15 5.79 22.79 24.99 2.20 9.66GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 97.20 428.05 591.14 633.11 41.96 7.10 894.04 1051.57 157.53 17.62*Based on Real GDP[ 224 ]
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