An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

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An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteAlcohol Consumption“At Risk” Smoking"At Risk"- As PercentSmokingof PopulationAs Percent of PopulationPercent28Expenditures PRC* Expenditures/PRCDisease(Billions) (Millions) Baseline (Thousands)OptimisticCancer 2648.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon 24 Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.122Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other 20 Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 1827.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart 16 Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke History 13.6 Forecast 2.4 5.614Mental Disorders 1988 1993 1998 2003 45.820082013 30.3 2018 2023 1.5Total Sources: BRFSS, Milken Institute 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionHeavy alcohol consumption may lead to the onset of various cancers and mental disorders, such as depression.A number of studies argue that higher prices may result in less consumption, but for heavy drinkers and thoseconsidered “at risk,” as defined by CDC as two or more drinks a day, this may not be the case. Price increaseshave had less effect on heavy drinkers than on moderate drinkers. 39 Per capita alcohol consumption has beenrelatively stable in recent years, averaging 24.7 gallons per person per year in 1995 and 25.2 gallons per personper year in 2004. 40 This trend suggests that alcohol consumption will remain relatively constant.According to BRFSS, 5.8 percent of the population was classified as “at risk” in 2003, down from 8.9 percent in 1984.The following graph depicts a decline of “at risk” drinking in the Eighties that stabilized throughout theNineties. The drop can be attributed to alcohol awareness campaigns.Baseline assumptions: The “at risk” percent of the population remains unchanged at 5.8 percent.Optimistic assumptions: The percentage of “at risk” population decreases steadily to 4.2 percent. Raisingawareness of the adverse effects—in particular, the links to chronic diseases—will lead to lower alcoholicconsumption per capita.39. Willard G. Manning et al. “Price of Alcohol Reduces Moderate Drinker Intake: Has Less Effect on Heavy Drinkers.”Research Brief. Institute for Health Services Research. University of Minnesota School of Public Health. April 1993.40. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2007 edition, Table 201.See: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/health_nutrition/.[ 77 ]
An Unhealthy AmericaMilken Institute“At Risk” Drinking "At Risk" - As DrinkingPercent of PopulationAs Percent of PopulationPercent9Expenditures PRC* Expenditures/PRCDisease(Billions) (Millions) Baseline (Thousands)OptimisticCancer 848.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon 7 Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.16Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other 5 Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 427.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart 3 Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke History 13.6 Forecast 2.4 5.62Mental Disorders 1988 1993 1998 2003 45.820082013 30.3 2018 2023 1.5TotalSources: BRFSS, Milken Institute 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionPhysical ActivityUsing data from BRFSS we assume an upward trend in the share of the population exercising regularly. 41Baseline assumptions: The percent share of the population engaged in physical activity will increase gradually,from 75.4 in 2003 to 77.9 in 2023.Optimistic assumptions: The population share engaged in physical activity will increase to 83.3 percent by 2023.Physical Activity Physical Particiation Activity - ParticipationAs Percent of PopulationAs Percent of PopulationPercent85Expenditures PRC* Expenditures/PRCDisease(Billions) (Millions) (Thousands)BaselineCancer Optimistic48.1 10.6 4.5Breast 80 Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate75Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.070Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke History 13.6 Forecast 2.4 5.665Mental Disorders 1988 1993 1998 2003 45.820082013 30.3 2018 2023 1.5Total Sources: BRFSS, Milken Institute 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting Condition41. We rely specifically on responses to the question “Have you ever participated in walking, running, etc. … in the past month?”[ 78 ]
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