An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

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An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteMissouriMissouriDirect Costs2003 2023Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceAvoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Expenditure perPRC ($)Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands)PRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Cancer 186 5,334 0.99 285 235 10,325 9,324 2.95 2.19 -51 -17.75 -1,000 -9.69 -0.76 -25.71Breast cancer 21 5,094 0.11 29 25 9,791 8,844 0.28 0.22 -4 -12.30 -947 -9.67 -0.06 -20.78Colon cancer 5 13,848 0.08 7 5 29,120 26,316 0.19 0.14 -1 -17.67 -2,804 -9.63 -0.05 -25.60Lung cancer 7 17,902 0.12 8 7 34,496 31,161 0.29 0.21 -2 -18.44 -3,336 -9.67 -0.08 -26.33Prostate cancer 16 4,951 0.08 25 20 9,737 8,797 0.25 0.17 -5 -21.48 -941 -9.66 -0.07 -29.06Other cancers 138 4,510 0.62 217 178 8,957 8,092 1.94 1.44 -39 -18.00 -865 -9.66 -0.50 -25.92Diabetes 231 2,318 0.54 317 275 4,569 4,128 1.45 1.14 -42 -13.30 -441 -9.66 -0.31 -21.67Heart disease 468 4,577 2.14 594 388 9,553 8,633 5.68 3.35 -206 -34.63 -920 -9.63 -2.32 -40.92Pulmonary conditions 1,034 1,255 1.30 1,319 1,134 2,557 2,311 3.37 2.62 -185 -14.05 -247 -9.64 -0.75 -22.34Hypertension 810 900 0.73 1,036 842 1,777 1,606 1.84 1.35 -194 -18.70 -172 -9.66 -0.49 -26.55Stroke 59 6,062 0.35 68 55 12,889 11,648 0.88 0.64 -13 -18.84 -1,240 -9.62 -0.23 -26.65Mental disorders 597 1,714 1.02 842 738 3,352 3,028 2.82 2.23 -104 -12.35 -324 -9.66 -0.59 -20.82Total 3,385 2,092 7.08 4,461 3,667 4,809 4,345 18.98 13.52 -794 -17.81 -464 -9.65 -5.46 -28.75Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days PresenteeismProjections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent2003TotalLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 4.78 0.81 0.66 13.73 8.17 0.059 0.048 1.33 0.86 15.93 9.74 -6.19 -38.83Breast cancer 0.51 0.08 0.07 1.30 0.83 0.006 0.005 0.13 0.09 1.51 0.99 -0.53 -34.77Colon cancer 0.36 0.05 0.04 0.89 0.53 0.004 0.003 0.09 0.06 1.03 0.63 -0.40 -38.73Lung cancer 0.59 0.08 0.06 1.35 0.80 0.006 0.005 0.13 0.08 1.57 0.95 -0.62 -39.34Prostate cancer 0.37 0.07 0.05 1.14 0.65 0.005 0.004 0.11 0.07 1.33 0.78 -0.55 -41.59Other cancers 2.96 0.53 0.44 9.04 5.36 0.039 0.031 0.87 0.57 10.49 6.40 -4.09 -39.00Diabetes 1.76 0.52 0.45 4.27 3.35 0.042 0.036 0.46 0.35 5.29 4.19 -1.10 -20.76Heart disease 2.56 1.38 0.90 5.01 2.74 0.135 0.088 0.48 0.27 7.01 4.00 -3.02 -43.01Asthma 1.97 1.09 0.94 3.88 3.15 0.079 0.068 0.38 0.31 5.42 4.46 -0.96 -17.74Hypertension 6.16 2.50 2.03 12.99 10.27 0.246 0.200 1.26 1.00 16.99 13.50 -3.49 -20.55Stroke 0.53 0.23 0.19 0.99 0.75 0.017 0.013 0.10 0.07 1.34 1.02 -0.31 -23.35Emotional disturbances 3.36 1.13 0.99 8.24 6.93 0.082 0.072 0.79 0.66 10.25 8.66 -1.59 -15.54Total 21.12 7.66 6.17 49.12 35.36 0.66 0.53 4.79 3.52 62.23 45.57 -16.66 -26.77* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - LevelProjections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceStroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionPercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Baseline Optimistic Absolute1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 9.00 26.20 29.98 31.93 1.95 6.52 36.73 43.10 6.37 17.33Capital stock (US$ Billions) 144.12 365.00 663.88 688.13 24.25 3.64 1872.71 2054.58 181.87 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 14.98 17.76 19.42 20.54 1.12 5.77 22.21 24.35 2.14 9.63GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 39.87 193.33 299.46 320.64 21.18 7.07 485.90 571.18 85.28 17.55*Based on Real GDP[ 211 ]
An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteMontanaMontanaDirect Costs2003 2023Avoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Projections - Level Projections - DifferencePRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($) Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands) Expenditure perPRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Cancer 31 4,317 0.14 51 42 8,665 7,776 0.45 0.33 -9 -17.92 -889 -10.26 -0.12 -26.34Breast cancer 3 4,479 0.01 5 4 9,016 8,087 0.04 0.03 -1 -12.30 -929 -10.31 -0.01 -21.34Colon cancer 1 12,481 0.01 2 1 27,656 24,818 0.04 0.03 0 -17.67 -2,838 -10.26 -0.01 -26.12Lung cancer 1 16,523 0.02 2 1 33,348 29,911 0.06 0.04 0 -18.44 -3,437 -10.31 -0.02 -26.85Prostate cancer 3 3,875 0.01 6 5 7,994 7,171 0.05 0.03 -1 -21.48 -823 -10.30 -0.01 -29.56Other cancers 23 3,275 0.08 38 31 6,827 6,124 0.26 0.19 -7 -18.00 -702 -10.29 -0.07 -26.44Diabetes 31 1,964 0.06 57 50 4,061 3,643 0.23 0.18 -8 -13.30 -418 -10.29 -0.05 -22.22Heart disease 54 3,699 0.20 89 58 8,131 7,296 0.73 0.43 -31 -34.63 -835 -10.26 -0.30 -41.34Pulmonary conditions 129 907 0.12 169 145 1,943 1,743 0.33 0.25 -24 -14.05 -200 -10.28 -0.08 -22.89Hypertension 86 865 0.07 122 99 1,793 1,608 0.22 0.16 -23 -18.70 -185 -10.29 -0.06 -27.06Stroke 8 6,418 0.05 11 9 14,389 12,913 0.17 0.12 -2 -18.84 -1,476 -10.25 -0.04 -27.17Mental disorders 141 1,725 0.25 215 189 3,536 3,172 0.76 0.60 -27 -12.35 -364 -10.30 -0.16 -21.38Total 481 1,837 0.88 715 592 4,440 3,984 2.88 2.07 -123 -17.19 -456 -10.28 -0.81 -28.19Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent2023Individual Caregiver2003TotalLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 0.80 0.15 0.12 2.48 1.47 0.0106 0.0086 0.24 0.16 2.87 1.75 -1.12 -38.96Breast cancer 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.23 0.14 0.0010 0.0008 0.02 0.02 0.26 0.17 -0.09 -34.82Colon cancer 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.24 0.14 0.0010 0.0008 0.02 0.02 0.28 0.17 -0.11 -38.78Lung cancer 0.13 0.02 0.02 0.31 0.19 0.0013 0.0011 0.03 0.02 0.36 0.22 -0.14 -39.39Prostate cancer 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.27 0.15 0.0012 0.0009 0.03 0.02 0.32 0.18 -0.13 -41.63Other cancers 0.45 0.08 0.07 1.42 0.84 0.0061 0.0049 0.14 0.09 1.65 1.01 -0.64 -39.05Diabetes 0.24 0.09 0.08 0.77 0.60 0.0075 0.0065 0.08 0.06 0.95 0.76 -0.20 -20.76Heart disease 0.29 0.21 0.14 0.75 0.41 0.0204 0.0133 0.07 0.04 1.05 0.60 -0.45 -43.01Asthma 0.25 0.14 0.12 0.50 0.40 0.0101 0.0087 0.05 0.04 0.69 0.57 -0.12 -17.74Hypertension 0.66 0.29 0.24 1.53 1.21 0.0289 0.0235 0.15 0.12 2.00 1.59 -0.41 -20.55Stroke 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.17 0.13 0.0028 0.0022 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.17 -0.05 -23.35Emotional disturbances 0.80 0.29 0.25 2.11 1.77 0.0210 0.0184 0.20 0.17 2.62 2.21 -0.41 -15.54Total 3.10 1.21 0.98 8.30 5.99 0.10 0.08 0.81 0.60 10.42 7.65 -2.76 -26.53* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - Level Projections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceProstate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionBaseline Optimistic Absolute PercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 11.00 23.77 28.63 30.50 1.87 6.52 35.93 42.18 6.25 17.40Capital stock (US$ Billions) 22.73 94.61 195.35 202.49 7.14 3.64 533.09 585.06 51.97 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 15.31 18.51 20.24 21.41 1.17 5.77 23.14 25.38 2.24 9.66GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 4.43 24.91 46.05 49.31 3.26 7.07 77.44 91.09 13.65 17.62*Based on Real GDP[ 212 ]
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