An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

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An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteComparison Comparison of U.S. of Baseline U.S. Baseline and and Optimistic Growth GDP - Rates US$ Billions of GDPPercent Change, Year AgoReal Growth Rate of GDPExpendituresNominal GrowthPRC*Rate of GDPExpenditures/PRCDisease(Billions) (Millions) (Thousands)Year Baseline Optimistic Difference Baseline Optimistic DifferenceCancer 48.1 10.6 4.52004 – – – – – –Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.82005 2.78 3.02 0.24 5.89 6.14 0.252006 3.30Colon Cancer3.42 0.123.96.330.36.4511.50.122007 3.22 Lung Cancer 3.42 0.20 6.3 5.42 0.45.62 17.1 0.202008 2.98 Prostate Cancer 3.12 0.14 4.3 4.99 1.05.13 0.14 4.12009 2.84 Other Cancers 3.09 0.24 28.0 4.88 7.75.13 0.25 3.62010 2.66 Pulmonary Conditions 2.84 0.19 45.2 4.73 49.24.92 0.19 0.92011 2.51 Diabetes 2.76 0.26 27.1 4.67 13.74.94 0.26 2.02012 2.31 Hypertension2.53 0.22 32.5 4.44 36.84.66 0.22 0.92013 2.13 Heart Disease 2.34 0.21 64.7 4.14 19.24.35 0.21 3.42014 2.06 Stroke 2.36 0.30 13.6 4.00 2.44.31 0.31 5.62015 2.03 Mental Disorders 2.30 0.27 45.8 3.94 30.34.22 0.28 1.52016 2.06Total2.36 0.30277.03.94162.24.24 0.311.72017 2.24 2.66 0.41 4.13 4.55 0.42PRC: Population Reporting Condition2018 2.20 2.70 0.50 4.08 4.59 0.502019 2.19 2.75 0.56 4.07 4.64 0.572020 2.23 2.90 0.67 4.11 4.79 0.692021 2.21 2.76 0.56 4.09 4.66 0.572022 2.23 2.94 0.71 4.12 4.83 0.722023 2.25 2.94 0.69 4.13 4.83 0.702024 2.28 2.92 0.64 4.16 4.81 0.652025 2.27 2.84 0.58 4.15 4.73 0.592026 2.33 2.97 0.64 4.21 4.86 0.652027 2.32 2.89 0.57 4.20 4.78 0.582028 2.32 2.81 0.50 4.20 4.71 0.512029 2.33 2.88 0.55 4.22 4.77 0.562030 2.32 2.83 0.51 4.20 4.72 0.522031 2.33 2.87 0.54 4.21 4.76 0.552032 2.35 2.90 0.55 4.23 4.79 0.562033 2.35 2.80 0.45 4.24 4.69 0.452034 2.37 2.87 0.50 4.26 4.76 0.512035 2.36 2.76 0.40 4.25 4.65 0.412036 2.38 2.77 0.39 4.26 4.66 0.402037 2.38 2.66 0.28 4.27 4.55 0.282038 2.40 2.71 0.31 4.28 4.60 0.312039 2.40 2.64 0.24 4.29 4.53 0.242040 2.42 2.70 0.28 4.31 4.59 0.282041 2.43 2.68 0.25 4.32 4.57 0.252042 2.43 2.65 0.22 4.31 4.53 0.222043 2.45 2.66 0.21 4.34 4.55 0.222044 2.44 2.61 0.16 4.33 4.50 0.172045 2.47 2.66 0.19 4.36 4.55 0.192046 2.46 2.58 0.12 4.35 4.47 0.132047 2.48 2.61 0.13 4.36 4.50 0.132048 2.49 2.64 0.15 4.38 4.53 0.152049 2.50 2.67 0.16 4.39 4.55 0.172050 2.50 2.63 0.13 4.39 4.52 0.13Sources: Census Bureau, Economy.com, NCHS, Milken Institute[ 179 ]
An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteFor graphical reference, the U.S. historical, baseline, and optimistic forecasts of real GDP are shown in the next graph.Real GDP Growth - U.S. Real Baseline GDP Growth and Optimistic ProjectionsU.S. Baseline and Optimistic ProjectionsPercent Change, Year Ago8Expenditures PRC* Expenditures/PRCDisease(Billions) (Millions) (Thousands)Cancer 648.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 Baseline 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 Optimistic 11.54Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.12Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.90Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9-2Heart Disease History64.7 19.2 Forecast 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6-4Mental Disorders 1970 1980 1990 45.8 2000 2010 30.3 2020 2030 1.5 2040Total Sources: BEA, Economy.com, 277.0 Global Insight, 162.2 Milken Institute 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionThe graph below illustrates the historical trend in real GDP levels.Real GDP - U.S. Baseline and Optimistic ProjectionsReal GDPU.S. Baseline and Optimistic ProjectionsUS$ BillionsExpenditures PRC* Expenditures/PRC40000Disease(Billions) (Millions) (Thousands)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.830000Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.120000Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 Baseline 0.9OptimisticDiabetes 27.1 13.7 2.010000Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 History 19.2 Forecast 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 01970 1980 45.8 1990 2000 30.3 2010 2020 2030 1.5 2040Total Sources: BEA, 277.0 Economy.com, Global 162.2 Insight, Milken Institute 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionThe preceding tables have highlighted national numbers for GDP levels and growth rates. However, our fixed-effectsmodel allows us to differentiate between states. The following table shows the baseline and optimistic average annualgrowth rates for all states for both nominal and real GDP comparisons. The top five states, in terms of real optimisticaverage annual GDP growth rates are Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Texas, and Washington. These states are generallycharacterized by overall higher growth of labor and capital, and longer life expectancies.[ 180 ]
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