An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteHigh CholesterolBRFSS data is useful for obtaining information on the percentage of the population screened for highcholesterol, which can lead to cardiovascular disease. The percentage of people diagnosed with highcholesterol jumped from 19.4 percent in 1994 to 33.6 percent in 2003, up 72.7 percent. Much of the increase,however, is attributed to more patients undergoing screening.Baseline assumptions: We expect the population share with high cholesterol to stabilize at around 42.2percent in 2023.Optimistic assumptions: Increased awareness of diet and nutrition, and their impacts on healthy aging, will helplower cholesterol levels. We assume that the population percentage with high cholesterol will drop to 31.5 in 2023.Air QualityHigh Blood Cholesterol - As Percent of PopulationHigh Blood CholesterolAs Percent of PopulationPercentExpenditures PRC* Expenditures/PRC45Disease(Billions) (Millions) (Thousands)40 BaselineCancerOptimistic48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.835Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung 30 Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.125Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary 20 Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.015Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart 10 Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke History 13.6 Forecast 2.4 5.6Mental51988 Disorders 1993 1998 2003 45.8 2008 2013 30.320182023 1.5Total Sources: BRFSS, Milken Institute 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionWe use air quality as an indicator for levels of air pollution. The higher the index, the higher the level of air pollution.Baseline assumptions: To capture a historical trend, we create a national air quality index that captures growthin fuel demand (as measured in BTUs) and population, based on data from the Environment Protection Agency(EPA). We assume that demands for fuel will increase as the population grows, causing the index to follow itshistorical trend. As a result, air quality worsens steadily, from 40.1 in 2003 to 58.4 in 2023, an increase of 46percent.Optimistic assumptions: We assume a net reduction in air pollution and other allergens and irritants attributedto more environmentally friendly fuel alternatives and/or incentives, such as ridesharing and low-emissionvehicles. Air pollution increases at a slower pace, reaching a level of 53.5 on the index in 2023.[ 79 ]