An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

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An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaDirect Costs2003 2023Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceAvoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Expenditure perPRC ($)Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands)PRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Cancer 297 4,219 1.25 532 437 9,419 8,327 5.01 3.64 -95 -17.83 -1,092 -11.60 -1.37 -27.36Breast cancer 32 4,230 0.14 51 45 9,407 8,310 0.48 0.37 -6 -12.30 -1,097 -11.66 -0.11 -22.53Colon cancer 10 11,593 0.11 14 11 28,763 25,425 0.39 0.29 -2 -17.67 -3,338 -11.60 -0.11 -27.22Lung cancer 11 16,601 0.17 16 13 37,028 32,710 0.57 0.41 -3 -18.44 -4,318 -11.66 -0.16 -27.96Prostate cancer 30 3,392 0.10 57 45 7,757 6,853 0.44 0.31 -12 -21.48 -904 -11.65 -0.14 -30.63Other cancers 215 3,415 0.73 395 324 7,902 6,982 3.12 2.26 -71 -18.00 -920 -11.64 -0.86 -27.55Diabetes 427 1,887 0.80 680 589 4,328 3,824 2.94 2.25 -90 -13.30 -504 -11.65 -0.69 -23.40Heart disease 537 3,288 1.75 774 506 8,083 7,145 6.26 3.62 -268 -34.63 -938 -11.61 -2.64 -42.21Pulmonary conditions 1,513 868 1.31 2,231 1,917 2,072 1,831 4.62 3.51 -313 -14.05 -241 -11.62 -1.11 -24.04Hypertension 1,192 932 1.11 1,780 1,447 2,141 1,891 3.81 2.74 -333 -18.70 -249 -11.65 -1.07 -28.16Stroke 80 5,881 0.47 107 87 14,788 13,073 1.58 1.14 -20 -18.84 -1,715 -11.60 -0.45 -28.25Mental disorders 993 1,217 1.20 1,682 1,475 2,764 2,442 4.65 3.60 -208 -12.35 -322 -11.65 -1.05 -22.56Total 5,038 1,567 7.90 7,786 6,459 4,265 3,770 28.88 20.50 -1,328 -17.05 -496 -11.63 -8.38 -29.03Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent2003TotalLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 7.60 1.51 1.24 25.61 15.22 0.109 0.089 2.48 1.61 29.71 18.15 -11.56 -38.90Breast cancer 0.83 0.14 0.13 2.44 1.55 0.010 0.009 0.24 0.16 2.84 1.85 -0.99 -34.83Colon cancer 0.68 0.12 0.10 2.02 1.20 0.009 0.007 0.20 0.13 2.34 1.43 -0.91 -38.78Lung cancer 1.06 0.17 0.14 2.94 1.73 0.013 0.010 0.28 0.18 3.41 2.07 -1.34 -39.40Prostate cancer 0.61 0.13 0.10 2.25 1.28 0.010 0.007 0.22 0.14 2.61 1.53 -1.09 -41.64Other cancers 4.43 0.94 0.77 15.95 9.46 0.068 0.055 1.54 1.00 18.51 11.28 -7.23 -39.06Diabetes 3.26 1.12 0.97 9.15 7.17 0.090 0.077 0.98 0.76 11.33 8.98 -2.35 -20.76Heart disease 2.93 1.80 1.17 6.53 3.57 0.177 0.115 0.63 0.35 9.14 5.21 -3.93 -43.01Asthma 2.88 1.84 1.58 6.55 5.33 0.134 0.115 0.64 0.52 9.17 7.54 -1.63 -17.74Hypertension 9.06 4.30 3.49 22.31 17.65 0.422 0.344 2.16 1.71 29.20 23.20 -6.00 -20.55Stroke 0.73 0.36 0.29 1.57 1.18 0.026 0.021 0.15 0.12 2.10 1.61 -0.49 -23.35Emotional disturbances 5.60 2.26 1.99 16.48 13.85 0.164 0.144 1.58 1.33 20.49 17.31 -3.18 -15.54Total 32.06 13.19 10.74 88.21 63.97 1.12 0.90 8.62 6.39 111.14 82.00 -29.14 -26.22* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - LevelProjections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceHeart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionPercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Baseline Optimistic Absolute1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 8.50 23.10 26.97 28.73 1.76 6.52 33.39 39.18 5.79 17.33Capital stock (US$ Billions) 147.44 420.59 1004.93 1041.64 36.71 3.64 3563.14 3909.18 346.04 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 14.81 17.76 19.42 20.54 1.12 5.77 22.21 24.35 2.14 9.63GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 45.42 309.26 492.27 527.09 34.82 7.07 967.36 1137.13 169.77 17.55*Based on Real GDP[ 219 ]
An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteNorth DakotaNorth DakotaDirect Costs2003 2023Avoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Projections - Level Projections - DifferencePRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($) Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands) Expenditure perPRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Cancer 20 5,766 0.12 29 24 10,143 9,269 0.29 0.22 -5 -17.93 -874 -8.62 -0.07 -25.00Breast cancer 2 5,410 0.01 3 3 9,641 8,810 0.03 0.02 0 -12.30 -831 -8.61 -0.01 -19.85Colon cancer 1 15,292 0.01 1 1 29,512 26,979 0.02 0.01 0 -17.67 -2,533 -8.58 0.00 -24.73Lung cancer 1 18,995 0.01 1 1 33,927 31,004 0.02 0.02 0 -18.44 -2,922 -8.61 -0.01 -25.47Prostate cancer 3 5,325 0.01 4 3 9,685 8,851 0.04 0.03 -1 -21.48 -833 -8.61 -0.01 -28.24Other cancers 15 4,876 0.07 21 17 8,943 8,174 0.19 0.14 -4 -18.00 -769 -8.60 -0.05 -25.06Diabetes 23 2,444 0.06 34 30 4,456 4,072 0.15 0.12 -5 -13.30 -383 -8.61 -0.03 -20.76Heart disease 47 5,036 0.23 59 39 9,654 8,826 0.57 0.34 -21 -34.63 -829 -8.58 -0.23 -40.24Pulmonary conditions 100 1,360 0.14 118 102 2,553 2,333 0.30 0.24 -17 -14.05 -219 -8.59 -0.06 -21.44Hypertension 78 946 0.07 94 76 1,726 1,578 0.16 0.12 -18 -18.70 -149 -8.60 -0.04 -25.69Stroke 8 6,715 0.05 9 8 13,086 11,963 0.12 0.09 -2 -18.84 -1,122 -8.58 -0.03 -25.80Mental disorders 42 1,800 0.08 54 48 3,257 2,977 0.18 0.14 -7 -12.35 -280 -8.61 -0.04 -19.89Total 318 2,341 0.75 399 326 5,035 4,602 1.78 1.28 -73 -18.31 -433 -8.60 -0.51 -28.54Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent2023Individual Caregiver2003TotalLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 0.53 0.08 0.07 1.40 0.83 0.0060 0.0049 0.135 0.088 1.62 0.99 -0.63 -38.97Breast cancer 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.13 0.08 0.0006 0.0005 0.013 0.009 0.15 0.10 -0.05 -34.78Colon cancer 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.06 0.0004 0.0003 0.009 0.006 0.11 0.07 -0.04 -38.75Lung cancer 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.06 0.0004 0.0004 0.010 0.006 0.12 0.07 -0.05 -39.35Prostate cancer 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.19 0.11 0.0008 0.0006 0.018 0.011 0.22 0.13 -0.09 -41.60Other cancers 0.32 0.05 0.04 0.88 0.52 0.0038 0.0031 0.085 0.055 1.02 0.62 -0.40 -39.01Diabetes 0.18 0.06 0.05 0.46 0.36 0.0045 0.0039 0.049 0.038 0.57 0.46 -0.12 -20.76Heart disease 0.25 0.14 0.09 0.50 0.27 0.0135 0.0088 0.048 0.027 0.70 0.40 -0.30 -43.01Asthma 0.19 0.10 0.08 0.35 0.28 0.0071 0.0061 0.034 0.027 0.49 0.40 -0.09 -17.74Hypertension 0.60 0.23 0.18 1.18 0.93 0.0223 0.0181 0.114 0.090 1.54 1.23 -0.32 -20.55Stroke 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.14 0.10 0.0023 0.0018 0.013 0.010 0.18 0.14 -0.04 -23.35Emotional disturbances 0.24 0.07 0.06 0.53 0.45 0.0053 0.0047 0.051 0.043 0.66 0.56 -0.10 -15.54Total 2.05 0.71 0.56 4.56 3.23 0.06 0.05 0.45 0.32 5.77 4.17 -1.60 -27.75* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - Level Projections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceProstate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionBaseline Optimistic Absolute PercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 8.40 24.97 28.52 30.39 1.87 6.54 35.19 41.29 6.10 17.34Capital stock (US$ Billions) 14.76 62.81 81.24 84.22 2.98 3.64 184.56 202.49 17.93 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 15.77 19.08 20.86 22.07 1.21 5.78 23.86 26.16 2.30 9.63GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 3.65 21.01 29.64 31.74 2.10 7.09 40.59 47.72 7.13 17.56*Based on Real GDP[ 220 ]
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