An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

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An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteWashingtonWashingtonDirect Costs2003 2023Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceAvoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Expenditure perPRC ($)Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands)PRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Cancer 222 4,407 0.98 390 321 8,884 7,973 3.47 2.56 -69 -17.78 -911 -10.25 -0.91 -26.21Breast cancer 23 4,916 0.11 40 35 9,919 8,893 0.39 0.31 -5 -12.30 -1,026 -10.34 -0.08 -21.37Colon cancer 8 11,646 0.09 11 9 25,876 23,212 0.28 0.21 -2 -17.67 -2,663 -10.29 -0.07 -26.14Lung cancer 9 17,207 0.16 13 11 34,810 31,211 0.46 0.34 -2 -18.44 -3,599 -10.34 -0.12 -26.88Prostate cancer 20 4,010 0.08 39 31 8,293 7,436 0.32 0.23 -8 -21.48 -856 -10.33 -0.10 -29.59Other cancers 163 3,344 0.54 288 236 6,987 6,266 2.01 1.48 -52 -18.00 -721 -10.32 -0.53 -26.47Diabetes 249 2,041 0.51 418 362 4,231 3,794 1.77 1.37 -56 -13.30 -437 -10.33 -0.39 -22.25Heart disease 302 3,467 1.05 487 319 7,642 6,855 3.72 2.18 -169 -34.63 -787 -10.30 -1.54 -41.36Pulmonary conditions 993 891 0.88 1,390 1,195 1,913 1,716 2.66 2.05 -195 -14.05 -197 -10.31 -0.61 -22.91Hypertension 644 917 0.59 962 782 1,905 1,708 1.83 1.34 -180 -18.70 -197 -10.33 -0.50 -27.09Stroke 49 5,797 0.28 73 59 13,032 11,692 0.95 0.69 -14 -18.84 -1,341 -10.29 -0.26 -27.19Mental disorders 307 1,820 0.57 511 448 3,741 3,354 1.91 1.50 -63 -12.35 -386 -10.33 -0.41 -21.40Total 2,767 1,756 4.86 4,231 3,485 4,446 3,988 16.31 11.69 -746 -17.62 -458 -10.30 -4.61 -28.29Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days PresenteeismProjections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent2003TotalLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 5.70 1.11 0.91 18.78 11.17 0.080 0.065 1.82 1.18 21.78 13.32 -8.46 -38.86Breast cancer 0.65 0.13 0.11 2.12 1.35 0.009 0.008 0.21 0.14 2.46 1.61 -0.86 -34.84Colon cancer 0.51 0.09 0.07 1.52 0.91 0.006 0.005 0.15 0.10 1.76 1.08 -0.68 -38.80Lung cancer 0.91 0.15 0.12 2.50 1.47 0.011 0.009 0.24 0.16 2.90 1.76 -1.14 -39.41Prostate cancer 0.47 0.10 0.08 1.75 0.99 0.007 0.006 0.17 0.10 2.03 1.18 -0.84 -41.66Other cancers 3.15 0.64 0.52 10.89 6.45 0.046 0.038 1.05 0.68 12.63 7.70 -4.93 -39.07Diabetes 1.90 0.69 0.60 5.62 4.41 0.055 0.047 0.60 0.47 6.96 5.52 -1.45 -20.76Heart disease 1.65 1.13 0.74 4.11 2.25 0.111 0.073 0.40 0.22 5.75 3.28 -2.47 -43.01Asthma 1.89 1.15 0.99 4.09 3.32 0.083 0.072 0.40 0.32 5.71 4.70 -1.01 -17.74Hypertension 4.89 2.32 1.89 12.06 9.54 0.228 0.186 1.17 0.92 15.78 12.54 -3.24 -20.55Stroke 0.45 0.24 0.20 1.06 0.80 0.018 0.014 0.10 0.08 1.42 1.09 -0.33 -23.35Emotional disturbances 1.73 0.69 0.60 5.01 4.21 0.050 0.044 0.48 0.40 6.23 5.26 -0.97 -15.54Total 18.22 7.33 5.92 50.72 35.69 0.63 0.50 4.96 3.59 63.64 45.70 -17.94 -28.19* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - LevelProjections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceStroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionPercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Baseline Optimistic Absolute1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 12.70 28.00 33.03 35.19 2.16 6.53 41.15 48.29 7.14 17.34Capital stock (US$ Billions) 138.10 481.20 1045.09 1083.30 38.21 3.64 4080.93 4477.37 396.44 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 15.26 18.84 20.60 21.79 1.19 5.77 23.56 25.83 2.27 9.63GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 35.05 246.15 431.94 462.52 30.58 7.08 983.40 1156.04 172.64 17.56*Based on Real GDP[ 233 ]
An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteWest VirginiaWest VirginiaDirect Costs2003 2023Avoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Projections - Level Projections - DifferencePRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($) Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands) Expenditure perPRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Cancer 72 4,718 0.34 104 85 8,639 7,871 0.90 0.67 -19 -17.87 -768 -8.89 -0.23 -25.17Breast cancer 7 4,634 0.03 8 7 8,447 7,693 0.07 0.06 -1 -12.30 -755 -8.93 -0.01 -20.13Colon cancer 3 13,299 0.04 3 2 26,335 23,991 0.08 0.06 -1 -17.67 -2,343 -8.90 -0.02 -24.99Lung cancer 3 18,304 0.05 3 3 33,446 30,458 0.11 0.08 -1 -18.44 -2,987 -8.93 -0.03 -25.73Prostate cancer 6 3,774 0.02 10 8 7,027 6,400 0.07 0.05 -2 -21.48 -627 -8.92 -0.02 -28.49Other cancers 54 3,819 0.20 79 65 7,174 6,534 0.57 0.43 -14 -18.00 -640 -8.92 -0.14 -25.32Diabetes 111 2,065 0.23 150 130 3,853 3,509 0.58 0.46 -20 -13.30 -344 -8.92 -0.12 -21.03Heart disease 178 3,756 0.66 222 145 7,387 6,729 1.64 0.98 -77 -34.63 -657 -8.90 -0.66 -40.44Pulmonary conditions 371 973 0.36 446 383 1,872 1,705 0.84 0.65 -63 -14.05 -167 -8.91 -0.18 -21.71Hypertension 301 1,014 0.30 357 290 1,895 1,726 0.68 0.50 -67 -18.70 -169 -8.92 -0.18 -25.95Stroke 20 6,783 0.14 22 18 13,569 12,362 0.30 0.23 -4 -18.84 -1,207 -8.89 -0.08 -26.06Mental disorders 225 1,327 0.30 290 254 2,457 2,238 0.71 0.57 -36 -12.35 -219 -8.93 -0.14 -20.17Total 1,278 1,828 2.34 1,591 1,306 3,997 3,641 5.64 4.05 -285 -17.90 -356 -8.91 -1.59 -28.18Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver Total2003TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute PercentLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 1.85 0.30 0.24 5.01 2.97 0.021 0.017 0.48 0.31 5.81 3.55 -2.26 -38.93Breast cancer 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.40 0.25 0.002 0.001 0.04 0.03 0.46 0.30 -0.16 -34.81Colon cancer 0.19 0.03 0.02 0.44 0.26 0.002 0.002 0.04 0.03 0.51 0.31 -0.20 -38.78Lung cancer 0.28 0.04 0.03 0.61 0.36 0.003 0.002 0.06 0.04 0.70 0.43 -0.28 -39.38Prostate cancer 0.13 0.02 0.02 0.39 0.22 0.002 0.001 0.04 0.02 0.45 0.26 -0.19 -41.63Other cancers 1.09 0.19 0.15 3.17 1.88 0.014 0.011 0.31 0.20 3.68 2.24 -1.44 -39.05Diabetes 0.85 0.25 0.21 2.02 1.59 0.020 0.017 0.22 0.17 2.50 1.98 -0.52 -20.76Heart disease 0.97 0.51 0.34 1.87 1.02 0.051 0.033 0.18 0.10 2.62 1.49 -1.13 -43.01Asthma 0.71 0.37 0.32 1.31 1.06 0.027 0.023 0.13 0.10 1.83 1.51 -0.33 -17.74Hypertension 2.29 0.86 0.70 4.47 3.54 0.085 0.069 0.43 0.34 5.85 4.65 -1.20 -20.55Stroke 0.18 0.08 0.06 0.33 0.25 0.005 0.004 0.03 0.02 0.44 0.34 -0.10 -23.35Emotional disturbances 1.27 0.39 0.34 2.84 2.38 0.028 0.025 0.27 0.23 3.53 2.98 -0.55 -15.54Total 8.12 2.75 2.21 17.85 12.82 0.24 0.19 1.75 1.28 22.58 16.50 -6.09 -26.95* Based on Nominal GDPIntergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - Level Projections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Baseline Optimistic Absolute PercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 6.80 15.67 17.66 18.81 1.15 6.52 22.79 26.75 3.96 17.38Capital stock (US$ Billions) 51.12 206.38 332.78 344.93 12.15 3.64 730.74 801.87 71.14 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 14.46 16.90 18.48 19.55 1.07 5.77 21.13 23.17 2.04 9.65GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 9.73 42.94 69.98 74.92 4.95 7.07 92.20 108.42 16.22 17.59*Based on Real GDPHeart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting Condition[ 234 ]
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