An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteThe highlights of each regression model follow:BREAST CANCERThe female 65-and-over population and the percentage of female obesity significantly explain incidence.As expected, the older females and those with a BMI above 30 are likely to have a higher incidence. Coefficientsare highly significant, as indicated by their respective high t-values. (Again, a t-statistic over 2.0 is significant.A coefficient with an associated t-statistic over 3.0 is considered highly significant.) Aging, exhibited by thepopulation 65 and over, yields the largest coefficient of 0.94. This would indicate that for 1.0 percent increasein the female population 65 and over, breast cancer incidence would increase by nearly 1.0 percent, holdingall other factors constant. A 1.0 percent increase in the percentage of the obese adult female populationindicates that incidence rises by 0.34 percent.COLON CANCERSmoking represents the most significant risk factor. The population 65 and over is also significant. Obesity anda higher percentage of “at risk” smokers are likely to increase incidence. A 1.0 percent change in smokingprevalence results in a 0.5 percent incidence change in the same direction. Since exercise is significant, we mayconclude that incidence decreases with moderate exercise.LUNG CANCERSmoking and population 65 and over both exhibit high significance. A 1.0 percent change in smokingprevalence leads to a roughly 1.0 percent incidence change in the same direction. Lung cancer probabilityincreases with age, reflecting the cumulative effect of a lifetime of unhealthy behaviors.PROSTATE CANCERProstate cancer tends to occur more often in African Americans and men 65 and over. Male obesity is also asignificant determinant. A 1.0 percent change in obesity prevalence leads to a 0.5 percent incidence change inthe same direction.OTHER CANCERSSince “other cancers” are not specific to one type, we test against various behavioral and demographic factors.Obesity, smoking, and cholesterol display high significance in “other cancer” incidence, but demographicfactors, particularly aging, also yield high correlation. A 1.0 percent change in obesity prevalence leads to 0.3percent incidence change in the same direction.ASTHMAThe onset of asthma 43 typically occurs to individuals under 40. Thus, we do not include age as a variable.Asthma is likely to be more prevalent among the Hispanic population, but the disease impact in that populationis not large, as indicated by the small coefficient. Smoking and air quality appear to be major risk factors. A 1.0percent change in smoking prevalence results in a 0.6 percent asthma prevalence change in the same direction.Air quality also seems to have a fairly significant impact.43. BRFSS provides data only on asthma, as opposed to pulmonary conditions.[ 85 ]